The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

Luxury Home Sales Hit a Decade-Low in August Amid Market Slowdown

A recent Redfin report reveals a significant slowdown in luxury home sales in August 2025, despite prices reaching a record high of $1.25 million, reflecting a 3.9% year-over-year increase. Sales in the luxury segment saw a 0.7% decline compared to the previous year, marking the lowest sales levels for August in the past decade. This slowdown indicates a cooling market, influenced by economic uncertainty and changing buyer behavior.
While luxury home prices continue to rise faster than non-luxury homes, pending sales showed slight stability, with a 0.1% increase year-over-year. However, luxury homes are taking longer to sell, with an average of 46 days on the market, up from 43 days last year. This trend reflects a slower decision-making process among buyers in the high-end market. Despite rising inventory (9.5% increase from August 2024), there were relatively few price reductions, with only 13.3% of homes priced over $1 million seeing cuts.
Regionally, some areas saw significant price increases, such as West Palm Beach, FL (15% increase) and New York (12.3% increase). However, other regions like West Palm Beach, FL and San Jose, CA saw large drops in sales, with West Palm Beach experiencing a 27.8% decrease in luxury home sales.
The definition of a "luxury" home has shifted, with the threshold now closer to $1.3 million, making the once-established $1 million price point less indicative of luxury status.
The luxury home market, while still commanding high prices, is slowing down, with buyers becoming more cautious due to economic factors and high prices. Sellers in the luxury market are holding firm on asking prices, leading to longer selling times and stagnant sales. The market remains in a holding pattern, with opportunities for buyers willing to wait for favorable conditions.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/luxury-home-sales-hit-a-decade-low-in-august-amid-market-slowdown/
#LuxuryHomes #HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #BuyerMarket #LuxuryRealEstate
 

Sellers Trim Prices as Inventory Gives Buyers More Leverage

The latest September Monthly Housing Trends report from Realtor.com shows that sellers are increasingly adjusting their asking prices in response to rising inventory, which gives buyers more leverage in the market. Nearly 20% of homes saw price reductions in September, reflecting a shift toward a buyer-favored market, particularly in lower- and mid-tier segments. Sellers in the luxury home market are more patient, with only 13.3% of homes priced over $1 million seeing reductions.
The most significant price cuts occurred in homes priced between $350,000 and $500,000, with 21.6% of listings in this range adjusting their prices. This is a common trend in mid-range homes, where first-time buyers and downsizers are highly active. Meanwhile, luxury homes benefit from lower turnover and less urgency from sellers. The overall price reductions were up 1.2 percentage points compared to September 2024, and this trend is expected to continue as seasonal trends align with further price cuts.
Regionally, the South had the highest rate of price reductions at 21.1%, while the Northeast had the lowest at 14.0%. Some metro areas, like Portland, Denver, and Indianapolis, saw even higher reductions due to slower demand.
Active inventory continued to grow in September, rising 17.0% year-over-year, which is keeping the total number of available homes above 1 million for the fifth consecutive month. However, inventory growth has slowed since the summer peak, and while there is more choice for buyers, the overall supply remains below historical norms, particularly in high-demand areas.
Takeaways:
For Buyers: The market is becoming more favorable, especially in mid-tier homes. Seasonal trends suggest that the early to mid-October period may offer additional advantages.
For Sellers: Sellers of lower and mid-tier homes must be more flexible with pricing, while those in the luxury segment can afford to wait for the right buyer.
For the Market: The overall housing market is seeing a gradual shift towards a more buyer-friendly environment, though supply constraints in high-demand markets still influence the market dynamics.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/sellers-trim-prices-as-inventory-gives-buyers-more-leverage/
#HousingMarket #PriceReductions #BuyerLeverage #HomeInventory #RealEstateTrends
 

Pending Home Sales Show Modest Growth, But the Outlook Remains Flat

The latest Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a 4.0% increase in pending home sales for August, which is the highest level since March 2025. While this increase appears positive at first glance, it reflects a stagnant housing market that has been characterized by modest fluctuations over the past two years. The market has struggled to break free from this pattern, indicating that factors other than mortgage rates are at play.
Despite the month-over-month increase, the housing market remains slow and constrained by affordability issues, particularly for first-time homebuyers. High mortgage rates continue to dampen buyer enthusiasm, and the market has not shown significant movement, staying within a narrow range of pending sales.
Regionally, the Midwest stands out with a notable 8.7% increase in pending sales month-over-month and a 6.7% year-over-year increase. The South also saw gains, with a 3.1% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year increase. The West, while showing a 5.0% increase in pending sales from July, still faces challenges and only posted a modest 0.2% increase compared to last year. The Northeast saw a slight dip of 1.1%, but still showed a 2.6% increase from the previous year.
The broader housing market remains stable, with limited movement and ongoing challenges like high mortgage rates, rising home prices, and stagnant wage growth. These factors contribute to affordability issues that continue to weigh heavily on the market. While the Midwest is showing stronger performance, other regions, particularly the West, are still struggling to regain momentum.
Looking forward, the market is expected to stay in its current state unless there are significant changes to the broader economic environment, such as a significant drop in mortgage rates or improvements in affordability. The market will likely remain in a holding pattern for the foreseeable future, with many buyers waiting for clearer signals before making a move.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/pending-home-sales-show-modest-growth-but-the-outlook-remains-flat/
#HousingMarket #PendingHomeSales #MortgageRates #RealEstateTrends #AffordabilityChallenges
 

Private Payrolls Decline by 32,000 in September Amid Shutdown Data Blackout

The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakening in September, with private payrolls declining by 32,000 jobs, according to the ADP Employment Report. This marks the biggest drop since March 2023 and signals a slowdown in hiring, compounded by the ongoing government shutdown, which has created a data blackout for essential labor statistics. The September report was significantly worse than economists' expectations, and August’s figures were revised downward to show a loss of 3,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain.
The report highlights a decline in multiple sectors, including leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, trade, transportation, utilities, and construction. Smaller businesses, in particular, were hit hard, losing 40,000 jobs. The labor market's slowdown is causing concern, with economists relying on alternative data sources to track economic trends, as government data like the monthly nonfarm payrolls report is delayed.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/private-payrolls-decline-by-32000-in-september-amid-shutdown-data-blackout/
#LaborMarket #JobGrowth #GovernmentShutdown #EconomicSlowdown #ADPReport
 

FICO Introduces Direct License Program to Revolutionize Mortgage Credit Scoring

FICO has launched the FICO Mortgage Direct License Program, a revolutionary move in the mortgage industry that aims to streamline how mortgage lenders access FICO Scores. This program removes the need for intermediaries like third-party resellers and credit bureaus, offering mortgage professionals a more direct, cost-effective way to obtain credit scores. The initiative introduces two pricing models for lenders: the Performance Model, which significantly reduces fees by 50%, and the Standard Per Score Model, which maintains the existing cost structure for those who prefer it.
This change is seen as a significant step toward improving pricing transparency, reducing unnecessary markups, and fostering competition in the mortgage sector. The program is expected to lower costs for lenders, benefiting borrowers by potentially reducing the overall cost of mortgages. Industry leaders, including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), have supported the move, calling it a much-needed reform in the credit reporting and mortgage industries.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/fico-introduces-direct-license-program-to-revolutionize-mortgage-credit-scoring/
#FICO #MortgageIndustry #CreditScoring #MortgageReform #Homebuyers
 

Impact of Government Shutdown on Housing and Homebuilding Markets

As the U.S. government shutdown continues, the housing market faces significant challenges, particularly in areas reliant on government-backed programs. One of the most immediate impacts is the lapse of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which expired on October 1, 2025. This leaves nearly five million properties at risk, particularly in flood-prone regions. Without the NFIP, many home sales in these areas could face delays or cancellations, potentially stalling around 1,400 property sales daily.
While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will continue operations as usual since they are not dependent on congressional appropriations, other housing functions are affected. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is operating with limited services, particularly in housing counseling and FHA-related functions. The USDA, which supports rural housing, has issued a contingency plan, but no new loans or grants will be processed during the shutdown.
The broader economic impact includes delays in government-backed mortgage loans such as those from the FHA, VA, and USDA, which could disrupt up to a quarter of all mortgage applications. This uncertainty may further complicate the market, particularly for first-time buyers, making them hesitant to proceed with home purchases.
The future of the housing market will depend on the length of the shutdown. If it extends, the disruptions could become more significant, especially in flood-prone areas. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has urged Congress to prioritize the reauthorization of the NFIP to stabilize the market and ensure that transactions continue smoothly.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/impact-of-government-shutdown-on-housing-and-homebuilding-markets/
#HousingMarket #GovernmentShutdown #NFIP #Homebuyers #FloodInsurance
 

Existing-Home Sales Remain Steady Amid Softening Market Conditions

In August 2025, existing-home sales in the U.S. remained largely stable, with 4.0 million homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate—a slight 0.2% decline from July but 1.8% higher than the same month last year. The market continues to operate at roughly 75% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a slow but resilient pace. Mortgage rates are gradually easing, and inventory is slowly improving, which may support more move-up activity, although affordability pressures persist for first-time buyers.
Regionally, the Midwest saw modest growth with a 2.1% monthly sales increase and relatively affordable median prices, while the Northeast and South experienced slight declines due to inventory constraints. The West saw small month-over-month gains but minimal year-over-year improvement due to high prices. Nationwide, inventory totaled 1.53 million units, the median existing-home price reached $422,600, and homes spent an average of 31 days on the market. First-time buyers represented 28% of sales, and cash purchases accounted for the same share.
Experts suggest that gradually falling mortgage rates and slightly rising inventory may help ease the market, but first-time buyers continue to face affordability challenges. Move-up buyers are benefiting from strong equity and robust investment portfolios, supporting upper-tier market activity. Overall, the market remains stable, with the potential for modest growth if current trends persist into the fall.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/existing-home-sales-remain-steady-amid-softening-market-conditions/
#ExistingHomeSales #HousingMarket2025 #RealEstateTrends #HomebuyerAffordability #USRealEstate
 

Hiring Slumps to Lowest Levels Since 2009 as Economists Rely on Alternative Labor Data Amid Shutdown

In September 2025, U.S. hiring slowed sharply, reaching its lowest levels since 2009, while layoffs remained relatively steady. With the federal government shutdown delaying official labor data, economists are relying on alternative sources such as the Chicago Federal Reserve and Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The Chicago Fed’s dashboard shows unemployment holding at 4.34%, layoffs steady at 2.1%, and hiring dipping to 45.2%. Challenger reports that planned furloughs through the first three quarters of 2025 reached nearly 946,426, up 24% from 2024, while new hires totaled only 204,939—a 58% drop year-over-year.
These figures indicate a labor market where companies are cautious about expansion, creating fewer new jobs despite stable unemployment. Economists warn that prolonged shutdowns and delayed official reporting could complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments. The decline in hiring could impact wage growth, consumer spending, and overall economic momentum, signaling potential headwinds for the U.S. economy in late 2025.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/hiring-slumps-to-lowest-levels-since-2009-as-economists-rely-on-alternative-labor-data-amid-shutdown/
 #LaborMarket #HiringSlowdown #EconomicTrends #GovernmentShutdown #FedPolicy
 

National Flood Insurance Program Lapses Amid Government Shutdown, Heightening Risks for Homeowners

The U.S. government shutdown on October 1, 2025, caused the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to lapse, leaving nearly five million properties exposed to flood risks during the peak of hurricane season. FEMA can no longer issue or renew policies, creating uncertainty for homeowners and prospective buyers, especially in flood-prone areas like Florida, Texas, and California. While existing policies remain active for 30 days, prolonged shutdowns threaten new home sales, mortgage processing, and economic activity, with potential annual losses estimated at $69.7 billion.
The lapse comes amid the threat of Hurricane Imelda and an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, heightening risks for coastal and low-lying areas. Congress is working on short-term reauthorization through November 21, 2025, with ongoing discussions for longer-term reform to stabilize coverage, improve affordability, and protect communities. Experts warn that uninterrupted NFIP coverage is essential to safeguard homeowners, maintain real estate activity, and mitigate financial losses in high-risk regions.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/national-flood-insurance-program-lapses-amid-government-shutdown/
 #FloodInsurance #NFIP #HurricaneSeason #HomeProtection #RealEstateRisk
 

Cash-Strapped Buyers Lean Heavily on Starter Homes

With housing affordability still a major challenge, U.S. buyers are increasingly turning to starter homes as the most practical entry point into the market. In August 2025, the typical starter home sold for $260,508, up 2.2% year-over-year, outpacing mid- and high-tier homes, whose prices also rose but saw slower sales. Pending sales of entry-level properties increased 3.1%, while mid- and high-tier segments saw slight declines. Demand remains strong among first-time buyers and downsizers, though those with existing home equity often have an advantage in making competitive offers.
The rise in starter-home prices is tempered by increased inventory, which climbed 16.4% compared to last year, the highest August level since 2016. While new listings have grown only slightly, the market benefits from both robust demand and healthy supply, particularly in metros where inventory growth is strong. Time on market for starter homes averaged 41 days, similar to mid- and high-tier homes, while regional trends show varying price and sales patterns, with metros like Milwaukee, Providence, and Riverside seeing notable gains, and areas like San Antonio, Miami, and Austin experiencing declines.
Overall, starter homes remain the most attainable option for cash-strapped buyers. While affordability pressures persist, ample inventory and strategic timing can help prospective homeowners find suitable opportunities, particularly in high-demand metropolitan areas.
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/10/cash-strapped-buyers-lean-heavily-on-starter-homes/
#StarterHomes #Homebuying #AffordableHousing #RealEstateTrends #FirstTimeBuyers