The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

AEI Housing Supply Is Critical to Prevent Another Home Price Surge

As Washington intensifies its push on housing affordability, a clear warning is emerging from the American Enterprise Institute: lowering mortgage rates without fixing housing supply could actually make affordability worse.
 
In its latest analysis, AEI explains just how far the market has drifted from pre-pandemic norms. To return to 2019-level affordability, one of three extreme shifts would need to occur: mortgage rates would have to fall by about 2.5 percentage points, household incomes would need to rise more than 50%, or home prices would have to drop roughly 35%. None of those outcomes are realistic on their own.
 
That’s why AEI’s conclusion is blunt. Demand-side policies, such as cutting mortgage rates or boosting buyer purchasing power, don’t solve the problem if supply remains constrained. In fact, they risk reigniting the very price growth policymakers are trying to stop.
 
This warning comes as Donald Trump continues to prioritize housing affordability. His administration has pushed for lower mortgage rates, explored restrictions on large institutional investors, and floated new tax and financing ideas. At the same time, Trump has voiced concern about overbuilding and pushing prices down too quickly, reflecting the political tension between affordability and protecting homeowner equity.
 
AEI argues that avoiding supply expansion is not neutral—it’s risky. Over the past decade, household formation has outpaced home construction, zoning rules have limited entry-level housing, and pandemic-era demand collided with historically low inventory. The result is a market where any increase in demand quickly turns into higher prices.
 
AEI modeled what happens if mortgage rates fall to 4.5% without new supply. While monthly payments initially drop, rising demand leads to price appreciation that wipes out about half the benefit within three years. When supply increases meaningfully, however, price growth slows and most of the affordability gains are preserved.
 
The takeaway is simple but uncomfortable: housing supply is the only durable solution. Without zoning reform, faster permitting, and more entry-level construction, lower rates may help sellers more than buyers.
 
Affordability isn’t just about cheaper money. It’s about more homes—built where people actually want to live.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/aei-housing-supply-is-critical-to-prevent-another-home-price-surge/
#HousingAffordability #MortgageRates #HousingSupply #RealEstatePolicy #HousingMarket

Mortgage Rates Pause After Long Slide, Ending the Streak by a Hair

Mortgage rates barely moved higher this week, bringing a quiet end to a recent stretch of steady improvements. While rates did tick up slightly, the change was so small that most borrowers would hardly notice. More importantly, rates remain near their lowest levels in almost three years, keeping borrowing conditions relatively favorable.
 
The calm was largely driven by the latest decision from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed concluded its policy meeting by leaving the federal funds rate unchanged, an outcome markets had fully anticipated. Because there was no surprise, the announcement failed to generate meaningful movement in bonds or mortgage rates.
 
For Fed meetings to truly move mortgage pricing, investors typically need something new—an unexpected rate change, updated economic projections, or a strong shift in tone from the Fed chair. This meeting delivered none of that. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated familiar themes, acknowledging progress on inflation while emphasizing caution around lingering risks. Financial markets reacted accordingly, with stocks, bonds, and mortgage rates staying mostly flat.
 
Against that backdrop, mortgage rates edged up only marginally. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose just one basis point to 6.10%. The 15-year fixed rate increased five basis points to 5.49%. Even after those increases, the 30-year rate remains close to a three-year low.
 
Daily rate data from Zillow tells a similar story. Most major loan types showed only slight movement, reinforcing the sense that the market is consolidating rather than reversing direction. Refinance rates also nudged higher, which is typical after a period of declining rates, but the changes were modest.
 
For borrowers, the key takeaway is context. The downward momentum has paused, not disappeared. Rates are no longer falling every day, but they also aren’t rising in any meaningful way. Compared with early 2025, today’s borrowing costs are still significantly lower.
 
Unless upcoming economic data or future Fed guidance delivers a real surprise, mortgage rates are likely to drift sideways near current levels. That stability gives buyers and refinancers something valuable: time—to compare lenders, evaluate options, and lock in a rate when it makes sense for their financial situation.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/mortgage-rates-pause-after-long-slide-ending-the-streak-by-a-hair/
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #Homebuying #Refinance

U S Trade Deficit Jumps in November, Rising Sharply Despite Tariff Push

According to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the trade deficit surged to $56.8 billion in November, a 94.6% jump from October. Just one month earlier, the deficit had fallen to its lowest level since early 2009, making the rebound especially striking.
 
The largest driver of the increase came from Europe. The U.S. goods deficit with the European Union widened by $8.2 billion in a single month, accounting for roughly one-third of the total rise. In contrast, the deficit with China narrowed slightly, falling by about $1 billion to $13.9 billion. While U.S.–China trade tensions have cooled compared with prior years, Europe has emerged as a growing source of imbalance.
 
Looking beyond one month, the broader trend is also moving in the wrong direction. Through November, the total U.S. trade deficit reached $839.5 billion, roughly 4% higher than during the same period in 2024. That suggests November’s spike wasn’t just a statistical blip, but part of a pattern of persistent trade gaps.
 
This data complicates the administration’s tariff strategy. President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that tariffs would shrink trade deficits, and earlier in 2025, “reciprocal tariffs” were explicitly tied to bilateral trade imbalances. But as the year progressed, that approach softened. By August, the White House reached a framework agreement with the EU that capped most European tariffs at 15%, aiming to stabilize transatlantic trade rather than aggressively rebalance it.
 
November’s numbers highlight the limits of tariffs as a standalone tool. Trade flows are shaped not just by duties, but by consumer demand, global supply chains, currency movements, and economic growth. When U.S. demand is strong, imports can rise quickly—even under higher tariff regimes.
 
For now, the takeaway is clear: the U.S. trade deficit remains large, uneven across trading partners, and highly sensitive to global conditions. That raises ongoing questions about whether tariff-based policies can meaningfully reshape trade balances over the long term—or whether deeper structural forces continue to dominate the outcome.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/u-s-trade-deficit-jumps-in-november-rising-sharply-despite-tariff-push/
#TradeDeficit #GlobalEconomy #Tariffs #USTrade #EconomicPolicy

Fed Votes to Hold Interest Rates Steady, Signaling Patience Despite Political Pressure

The Federal Reserve opened 2026 with a clear message: no rush, no panic, and no political shortcuts.
 
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep interest rates unchanged, holding the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. The decision followed three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 and came despite increasing pressure from the White House to move faster.
 
For borrowers hoping for immediate relief, the pause may feel disappointing. But for policymakers, it reflects a deliberate effort to stabilize the economy after years of rapid shifts.
 
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the current stance of policy remains appropriate. Economic growth, while slowing, is still solid. The labor market is cooling but not breaking, and inflation—though above the Fed’s 2% target—has remained contained. In short, the Fed sees no urgency to act.
 
The vote was not unanimous. Two members dissented, favoring an immediate rate cut to provide additional support to a softening labor market. Still, the majority chose caution over speed.
 
What makes this decision especially notable is the backdrop. The meeting took place amid heightened political pressure and unprecedented scrutiny of the Fed’s leadership. Yet the central bank held its ground, reinforcing its commitment to data-driven, independent policymaking.
 
For housing and lending markets, the implications are subtle but important. Mortgage rates don’t directly follow the Fed’s benchmark, but a pause helps reduce volatility. Borrowers are unlikely to see dramatic rate drops in the near term, but stability itself can support planning and confidence.
 
Credit card and variable-rate loan users, however, shouldn’t expect immediate relief. With rates on hold, borrowing costs in those areas are likely to remain elevated until later in the year.
 
Looking ahead, futures markets still anticipate gradual cuts starting around mid-2026. For now, the Fed appears focused on balance—allowing past rate cuts to work through the economy while avoiding premature moves that could reignite inflation.
 
This was a quiet decision, but one with loud implications. The Federal Reserve is signaling patience, independence, and a return to measured policy—setting the tone for how 2026 may unfold.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/fed-votes-to-hold-interest-rates-steady-signaling-patience-despite-political-pressure/
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook

Case Shiller Report Home Prices Rise Slowly as Inflation Eats Away Gains

U.S. home price growth remained weak in November, reinforcing signs that the housing market is cooling after several years of rapid appreciation.
 
According to the latest S&P Dow Jones Indices Case-Shiller Home Price Index, national home prices rose 1.4% year over year, matching October’s pace. While prices are still technically higher than a year ago, they are no longer keeping up with inflation. With consumer prices rising at about 2.7%, home values effectively fell by roughly 1.3% in real terms.
 
That shift matters. It means homeowners are no longer gaining purchasing power from rising prices, and buyers are not facing the same upward pressure that defined much of the past decade.
 
The slowdown has been building since mid-2023, driven by affordability limits, higher borrowing costs, and more selective buyer demand. Lower mortgage rates alone have not been enough to restart strong price growth.
 
Regional differences remain pronounced. Midwestern and Northeastern cities continue to lead, supported by tight housing supply and steadier demand. Chicago posted a 5.7% annual gain, New York rose 5.0%, and Cleveland increased 3.4%.
 
Meanwhile, several Sun Belt markets that surged during the pandemic are now seeing prices move lower. Tampa fell nearly 4% year over year, while Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami also posted declines. These markets are adjusting as inventory grows and buyers gain leverage.
 
Monthly data points to continued softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in 15 of the 20 major metro areas tracked by the index. Even after seasonal adjustment, national prices rose just 0.4%, signaling a market that is drifting sideways rather than accelerating.
 
Economists note that while mortgage rates have eased in recent months, many buyers are already stretched by high prices and other living costs. That has led to slower price growth, more negotiation, and fewer bidding wars—especially in markets where supply is improving.
 
Overall, the November Case-Shiller data confirms a housing market in transition. Price gains are modest, uneven, and losing ground to inflation. For buyers, that means more opportunity in parts of the Sun Belt. For sellers, it means pricing realistically matters more than ever as 2026 unfolds.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/case-shiller-report-home-prices-rise-slowly-as-inflation-eats-away-gains/
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #RealEstateTrends #Affordability #MarketOutlook

Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, January 28, 2026 Rates slip even further below 6% 1

Mortgage rates are finishing January on a relatively calm note, hovering near their recent lows and offering borrowers a bit of breathing room after months of volatility.
 
According to data from the Zillow lender marketplace, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 5.93%, slipping back below the psychologically important 6% level. The 15-year fixed rate held steady at 5.47%, continuing to appeal to borrowers focused on minimizing long-term interest costs.
 
While day-to-day movements have been modest, today’s rates remain meaningfully lower than where they started in 2025. That stability is important. In a market shaped by affordability constraints, even small improvements in borrowing costs can influence buyer confidence and refinancing decisions.
 
Refinance rates also edged lower, with the average 30-year refinance rate sitting at 6.04%. Although refinances typically carry slightly higher rates than purchases, the gap has narrowed compared with earlier in the year. For homeowners who took out loans during the 2024–2025 peak, this may reopen conversations about refinancing—especially if the rate drop is enough to justify closing costs.
 
For buyers, rates below 6% can modestly improve purchasing power. While this doesn’t solve affordability challenges on its own, it can help stabilize monthly payments and expand options at the margin, particularly in markets where prices have stopped climbing aggressively.
 
Fixed-rate mortgages continue to dominate the landscape. Adjustable-rate mortgages remain available, but with fixed rates often matching or even beating ARM introductory rates, the incentive to take on future rate uncertainty has diminished for many borrowers.
 
Looking ahead, mortgage rates remain sensitive to economic data, central bank messaging, and global bond market movements. Volatility hasn’t disappeared—but for now, borrowing costs are holding near levels that many buyers and homeowners consider workable.
 
For borrowers who are financially prepared, this period of relative stability may offer a reasonable opportunity to act—especially compared with the unpredictability seen over the past few years.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/mortgage-and-refinance-interest-rates-today-january-28-2026-rates-slip-even-further-below-6/
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #RealEstateTrends #FHFA #HousingOutlook

FHFA Report Shows Uneven Home Price Growth Across U S Regions

U.S. home prices continued to move higher in November, but the latest data makes one thing clear: the housing market is no longer moving in unison.
 
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index, national home prices rose 0.6% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared with November of last year, prices were up 1.9%. While that confirms prices are still rising overall, the pace remains modest and far from uniform across the country.
 
Regional differences were especially pronounced. On a month-to-month basis, price growth ranged from flat in the Middle Atlantic region to a solid 1.1% increase in the East South Central division. Over the past year, the spread widened even further. Some regions, like the East North Central division, posted annual gains above 5%, while the Pacific division recorded a small year-over-year decline.
 
These gaps highlight how local conditions are increasingly driving outcomes. Housing supply, migration trends, job growth, and affordability pressures vary widely by region, and buyers are responding accordingly. Markets with tighter inventory and more stable local demand continue to see price support, while areas that experienced rapid pandemic-era growth are now adjusting.
 
The FHFA House Price Index is designed to capture these shifts accurately. It tracks repeat sales of the same single-family homes over time, helping isolate true price changes rather than differences in home size or quality. The data spans all 50 states and hundreds of metro areas, offering one of the most comprehensive views of price trends in the U.S. housing market.
 
FHFA also publishes several versions of the index, including purchase-only data, all-transactions data that includes refinances, and specialized measures that exclude distressed sales or track manufactured housing. Together, these indexes help policymakers, lenders, and investors understand how different segments of the market are behaving.
 
The takeaway from November’s report is that prices are still rising, but momentum is uneven and increasingly localized. Higher borrowing costs and affordability limits are shaping buyer behavior, and national averages are masking very different regional realities.
 
Looking ahead, the next FHFA report will provide more clarity on how prices finished the year and whether these regional patterns are becoming more entrenched as 2026 unfolds.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit  Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
https://nadlancapitalgroup.com/
 
Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/fhfa-report-shows-uneven-home-price-growth-across-u-s-regions/
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #RealEstateTrends #FHFA #HousingOutlook

HOA Fees on the Rise as Associations Cover a Larger Share of U S Homes

For homebuyers in 2026, there’s a growing reality that’s becoming impossible to ignore: homeowners associations are no longer the exception — they’re the norm, and they’re getting more expensive.
 
New data from Realtor.com shows that the share of homes for sale with HOA fees continued to rise through 2025, along with the cost of those fees. What was once mostly tied to condos and gated communities is now a structural feature of the broader U.S. housing market.
 
Today, nearly 44% of all homes listed for sale come with an HOA fee. That’s up from about 42% just one year ago, and up sharply from 34% in 2019. At the same time, the median monthly HOA fee has climbed to $135, nearly 25% higher than six years ago.
 
HOAs typically provide shared amenities and services — things like landscaping, exterior maintenance, pools, clubhouses, private roads, and sometimes security. But those services come with a recurring cost that sits on top of a mortgage, property taxes, and insurance. As affordability tightens, that extra monthly obligation is becoming a more meaningful part of the buying decision.
 
Importantly, HOAs are no longer just a condo issue. About one-third of single-family homes now carry HOA fees, and that share continues to grow. These homes tend to be newer, larger, and more expensive than non-HOA homes, which helps explain why buyers are increasingly encountering HOAs whether they want them or not.
 
New construction is a major driver. Nearly 68% of newly built homes have HOA fees, compared with less than 40% of existing homes. But as those newer homes resell, they’re steadily expanding the HOA footprint across the resale market as well.
 
Regionally, the differences are stark. Western and Southern states have the highest HOA concentrations, with Nevada leading the nation. In contrast, older and more rural states have far fewer HOA-governed homes. Where new construction is most active, HOAs are becoming unavoidable.
 
Notably, HOA homes didn’t sit longer on the market in 2025, suggesting buyers are increasingly accepting them as part of the housing landscape — often because alternatives are limited.
 
The bottom line is this: HOA fees are now a core part of the housing affordability equation. They can reduce buying power, raise long-term ownership costs, and materially affect monthly budgets. In many markets, the real choice isn’t whether to buy into an HOA — it’s which one to choose, and at what cost.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit  Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
https://nadlancapitalgroup.com/
 
Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/hoa-fees-on-the-rise-as-associations-cover-a-larger-share-of-u-s-homes/
#HousingAffordability #RealEstateTrends #HOAFees #Homebuying2026 #HousingMarket

Home Prices Cool in Over 100 Major Cities as National Growth Stays Flat

U.S. home prices are still moving higher at the national level — but only barely — and the housing market is becoming increasingly divided as we head deeper into 2026.
 
New analysis of Zillow Home Value Index data shows national home prices rose just 0.1% from December 2024 to December 2025. That’s a sharp slowdown from the 2.6% annual growth seen a year earlier and only slightly above the cycle low reached late last summer. In short, prices aren’t falling nationwide — but momentum has nearly stalled.
 
Beneath the surface, however, the story looks very different.
 
More than one-third of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets posted year-over-year price declines in December. That shift accelerated through the first half of 2025 as inventory increased and buyers gained leverage, then largely stabilized in the second half of the year. Importantly, none of the declining markets were located in the Midwest, highlighting how regional conditions now matter more than national averages.
 
Inventory levels are the key driver behind this split.
 
Markets where housing supply remains well below pre-pandemic norms — particularly in the Midwest and Northeast — continue to see modest price support. In contrast, many Sunbelt and Mountain West markets now have inventory at or above 2019 levels, giving buyers more choices and reducing upward price pressure.
 
Sunbelt markets are feeling the adjustment most clearly. Areas like Texas, Florida, and parts of the Mountain West saw rapid price growth during the pandemic, often far outpacing local income growth. As migration slowed and mortgage rates stayed elevated, those markets became more sensitive to affordability limits. A surge in new home construction has added further pressure, with builders offering incentives that pull demand away from resale homes.
 
The result is a housing market that’s cooling — not breaking.
 
Most large metros are still seeing prices edge higher, but gains are modest and uneven. The era of one-directional price growth is over, replaced by a market where local supply conditions determine outcomes.
 
Bottom line: national home prices are holding steady, but housing has become a neighborhood-by-neighborhood story. Buyers are gaining leverage in inventory-rich markets, while supply-constrained regions continue to resist price declines as 2026 unfolds.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit  Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
https://nadlancapitalgroup.com/
 
Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/home-prices-cool-in-over-100-major-cities-as-national-growth-stays-flat/
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #RealEstateTrends #MarketUpdate #HousingData

Refinance Boom Lifts Mortgage Applications to Highest Level in Over 3 Years

Mortgage activity is surging again — and it’s all about timing.
 
Last week, mortgage applications climbed to their highest level in more than three years as borrowers rushed to take advantage of the sharp rate drop seen earlier in January. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, total mortgage applications jumped 14.1% for the week ending January 16, following another strong increase the week before. Together, the back-to-back gains show just how quickly borrowers respond when rates finally move in their favor — even briefly.
 
Refinancing led the charge. The MBA’s Refinance Index surged 20% week over week and came in a striking 183% higher than the same time last year, marking the strongest refinance activity since September. The trigger was clear: 30-year fixed mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6%. That level didn’t last long, but it was enough to pull a large group of homeowners off the sidelines.
 
As MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan noted, refinancing now accounts for more than 60% of total mortgage activity, driven primarily by conventional and VA borrowers looking to lock in savings while the window was open.
 
But this wasn’t just a refinance story. Purchase demand also showed meaningful improvement. The MBA’s Purchase Index rose 5% from the prior week. On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications jumped 12% week over week and were 18% higher than a year ago. While purchase activity remains below long-term historical norms, the data suggests lower rates are finally starting to loosen buyer hesitation.
 
The mix of applications shifted as well. Refinances made up nearly 62% of total volume, adjustable-rate mortgages edged slightly higher, FHA activity declined, and VA loans saw a modest increase. In short, borrowers were selective — but active.
 
The bottom line is straightforward: even a short-lived drop in rates can unleash significant demand. Whether this momentum continues will depend on what rates do next. But for now, the message from borrowers is clear — they’re ready to move when the math starts to work again.
 
For direct financing consultations or mortgage options for you visit  Nadlan Capital Group. Contact us today for a tailored consultation, where our expert advice turns potential into profitable reality.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
https://nadlancapitalgroup.com/
 
Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2026/01/refinance-boom-lifts-mortgage-applications-to-highest-level-in-over-3-years/
#MortgageRates #Refinance #HomeBuying #HousingMarket #InterestRates