The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

Higher Risk, Higher Reward How Data and Automation Are Transforming Returns in Home Equity Investing

The home equity lending market is gaining momentum again, and this time, institutional investors are leading the charge. A new report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects that home equity loan balances will climb by 7% this year, while home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) are set to grow nearly 10% by the end of 2025. Wall Street is taking notice—investment firms issued about $18 billion in bonds backed by home equity loans last year, triple the volume recorded in 2023.
For investors searching for stronger returns in a tightening credit environment, these numbers mark a shift. Home equity loans and HELOCs carry more risk than traditional first-lien mortgages but deliver higher yields. What’s changing now is how data analytics, automation, and artificial intelligence are reshaping how those risks are measured, mitigated, and managed.
“The appeal is obvious—higher yields, lower entry costs, and a surge in borrower demand,” said one structured finance analyst. “But the difference between profit and loss comes down to the quality of data and the precision of execution.”
Home equity portfolios have always been complex. These second-lien loans offer strong interest margins but expose investors to greater loss potential because repayment comes only after the first mortgage holder in a foreclosure scenario. Rising delinquency and foreclosure data from early 2025 underscore that risk. A report from ATTOM showed that foreclosure starts rose 14% in the first quarter, while the MBA reported an increase in overall delinquencies. Even small increases in borrower distress can quickly erode returns.
To stay ahead, investors are turning to automation and data science. Machine learning and AI models now analyze millions of loan files in days instead of weeks, identifying irregularities, missing data, and borrower risk indicators long before deals close. Blockchain-based ledgers are also being adopted to store verified records of ownership, valuations, and loan performance, eliminating many of the inefficiencies that once plagued portfolio transfers.
“Technology isn’t just speeding up due diligence,” noted a fintech executive. “It’s redefining what trust means in financial data. Once loan information is digitized and verified through AI and blockchain, transparency becomes a competitive edge.”
AI is now driving much of the operational improvement across home equity portfolios. Algorithms can cross-check appraisals, detect inaccurate interest calculations, and flag servicing errors that might otherwise slip through manual reviews. Servicers are also using AI to manage collections, monitor bankruptcy cases, and detect signs of borrower distress early—allowing interventions before loans slide into default. These efficiencies have cut operational costs, improved accuracy, and reduced time to decision, helping stabilize returns in a volatile sector.
But even as automation reshapes the industry, human expertise remains indispensable. Portfolio managers still provide the intuition and judgment that machines can’t replicate—assessing local housing trends, borrower intent, and market dynamics. “Technology gives us the visibility,” said one private credit portfolio manager. “Experience tells us what actually matters.”
This convergence of AI, data analytics, and human insight is transforming how home equity investments are valued and managed. What was once seen as a risky corner of the market is now emerging as a mainstream, yield-driven asset class. Investors with the infrastructure to harness clean data and the discipline to manage it effectively are reaping the benefits—turning volatility into opportunity.
As second-lien lending becomes more central to modern portfolio strategies, automation is rewriting the rules of risk management and return generation. With rising home values and robust consumer demand, the next phase of home equity investing won’t just be about higher yields—it will be about smarter, faster, and more transparent decision-making.
As one industry veteran put it, “This is the future of mortgage capital markets. The investors who master automation and data aren’t just chasing returns—they’re building the foundation for a new era in real estate finance.”
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#HomeEquity #AIinFinance #MortgageInvesting #Automation #DataDrivenFinance
 

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm at Long Term Lows Amid Market Calm

Mortgage rates are holding firm at their lowest levels in more than a year, extending an unusually calm streak that’s lasted for nearly two weeks. On average, lenders are offering rates just above the lowest levels seen in more than three years, giving borrowers a rare window of stability in an otherwise uncertain financial environment.
The steadiness comes despite broader market turbulence, as the ongoing government shutdown has paused major economic reports, leaving investors without key indicators like inflation, jobs, and consumer spending data. With fewer signals to follow, the bond market—the primary driver of mortgage rates—has been reacting to smaller developments, including new tariffs and recent volatility among regional banks.
Over the past several weeks, bond prices have moved gently higher, keeping yields—and by extension, mortgage rates—near long-term lows. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark, dipped just below 4%, suggesting investors are leaning toward safer assets even amid uncertainty. “Rates are holding steady at the best levels we’ve seen in over a year,” one senior loan originator said. “This consistency gives buyers and refinancers a much-needed chance to plan without worrying about sudden spikes.”
Without new government data, the markets are treading water. Analysts say the vacuum has amplified the impact of minor headlines, with tariff policy and regional bank liquidity concerns nudging investors toward bonds. This “flight to safety” behavior tends to help mortgage rates—but most experts agree the calm won’t last once the government reopens and the flow of economic data resumes.
Still, signs of market fatigue are emerging. After weeks of improvement, bonds appear to be hitting resistance near current levels, raising the possibility of a modest pullback. “We’re seeing some natural resistance around the 4% level on the 10-year yield,” said a fixed-income strategist. “For rates to improve further, we’d likely need weaker economic data or a major policy surprise.”
For now, borrowers are making the most of the moment. Refinance activity has increased, particularly among FHA and conventional borrowers who locked in higher rates earlier this year. Some cautious buyers are stepping back in, taking advantage of the rate stability before potential market swings return.
Mortgage analysts caution that this calm period may prove fleeting. When the government reopens and delayed data—like inflation and employment reports—finally hits, volatility could quickly return. “This kind of calm in mortgage rates doesn’t last forever,” one expert noted. “For now, steady is a gift.”
In the big picture, rates remain historically attractive, hovering near multi-year lows despite lingering inflation and global uncertainty. The current stretch of stability has offered a breather to both borrowers and lenders, but it’s a fragile peace—one that could shift quickly once the data flow resumes.
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#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #InterestRates #BondMarket #HomeLoans #RealEstateFinance
 

Goldman Sachs U S Businesses and Consumers Carry the Weight of Rising Tariff Costs

A new analysis from Goldman Sachs reveals that American businesses and consumers—not foreign exporters—are bearing nearly all the costs of recent U.S. tariffs, challenging the notion that such trade measures primarily hurt overseas suppliers. As of August 2025, U.S. companies were absorbing about 51% of total tariff expenses, while consumers were shouldering 37%. Foreign exporters carried just 9%, and the remaining 3% came from evasion and circumvention, according to Goldman’s report.
The analysis shows that because many of the tariffs are newly implemented, U.S. firms have not yet fully passed along higher costs to consumers. However, as contracts renew and supply chains adjust, households will feel a larger impact. By the end of 2025, Goldman expects consumers to carry 55% of the total burden, compared to just 22% for domestic businesses and 18% for foreign exporters.
Goldman economists warn that this cost shift is already visible in inflation data, with tariffs contributing roughly 0.5 percentage points to overall price growth this year. The core PCE inflation rate, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, has risen about 0.44 points due to tariff pass-throughs. If consumer absorption of costs increases to 70%, inflation could climb by another 0.6 percentage points, potentially keeping it above the Fed’s 2% target well into 2026.
The report projects that core PCE inflation will end 2025 around 3% year-over-year, compared to 2.2% excluding tariff effects. By late 2026, it is expected to moderate to 2.4%, or 2% without tariffs.
Federal Reserve officials are closely watching these developments. With headline PCE inflation at 2.7% and core PCE at 2.9%, the inflationary effects of tariffs have complicated the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts. Though the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points in September, officials remain wary that persistent trade pressures could reignite inflation.
Economists note that tariffs function like a tax on U.S. importers, which often results in higher consumer prices and tighter profit margins. Industries such as construction, auto manufacturing, and technology have already reported rising input costs for materials like steel and semiconductors. “It’s a domino effect,” said Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management. “Tariffs drive up business costs, businesses raise prices, and households feel the pinch.”
While some U.S. manufacturers benefit from reduced competition, the overall effect has been higher prices and slower economic momentum. Goldman’s model suggests that if current trade policies continue, tariffs could add up to 1 percentage point to inflation through 2026.
With trade tensions between the U.S. and China still high, the Trump administration has hinted at additional tariffs, while China has responded with restrictions on critical materials like rare earths. The back-and-forth raises uncertainty for investors and businesses, potentially delaying capital spending and hiring decisions.
In the end, Goldman Sachs’ findings underscore a harsh truth: tariffs meant to protect domestic industry are largely being paid for by Americans themselves. As policymakers debate the balance between economic protectionism and price stability, consumers are already feeling the effects—one grocery bill and hardware receipt at a time.
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#GoldmanSachs #Tariffs #Inflation #FederalReserve #TradePolicy #USEconomy #ConsumerCosts
 

Refinance Boom Surges as Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Levels in Over a Year

Mortgage rates have reached their lowest levels in more than a year, igniting a surge in refinancing as homeowners rush to take advantage of better borrowing conditions. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.37% from 6.42% the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Though the decline seems modest, it’s enough to significantly improve affordability for many borrowers. Refinancing activity jumped 4% week over week and now stands 81% higher than a year ago, underscoring just how sensitive homeowners are to even slight rate movements. Joel Kan, MBA’s Deputy Chief Economist, explained that conventional refinances rose 6% while FHA refinances increased 12%, reflecting strong borrower response to easing costs.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are also gaining traction, with applications rising 16% and accounting for 11% of the market. The rate gap between ARMs and fixed loans—around 0.8 percentage points—is encouraging buyers who want to reduce payments as home prices remain near record highs. Even so, purchase applications fell 5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, though activity is still 20% higher than last year, suggesting the housing market remains more resilient than it was in 2024.
Many potential buyers remain cautious, hoping for rates to fall closer to 6% or below before making a move. Markets like Phoenix, Austin, and Las Vegas are seeing modest price relief, but affordability continues to challenge buyers due to elevated property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. A Los Angeles mortgage broker noted that hesitation remains strong, with many buyers waiting for further rate declines.
The drop in rates has been fueled by steady improvement in the bond market as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve may ease policy further amid cooling inflation. Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily said the current movement isn’t driven by major economic headlines but by gradual adjustments in investor expectations. Some lenders are already offering their lowest mortgage rates since 2022.
For homeowners who locked in loans above 6.8% last year, refinancing now could save hundreds of dollars per month. While the current boom isn’t on the scale of 2020 and 2021, it signals renewed optimism. Many borrowers who previously dismissed refinancing are revisiting their options and finding that it finally makes financial sense. Kan noted that even minor drops in rates can trigger significant activity because of pent-up demand. Experts, however, believe a larger wave of refinancing will only occur if rates approach the 5% range.
The future of mortgage rates will depend heavily on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. If inflation continues to cool, rates could dip further, stimulating more refinance and purchase demand as 2026 approaches. For now, the market is experiencing a rare window of stability after years of volatility. As one seasoned loan officer put it, “It may not be 3% anymore, but for a lot of people, this market feels like a second chance.”
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#RefinanceBoom #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #HomeLoans #InterestRates
 

Patrick Coon: A Life in Mortgage | Leadership, Legacy & Lasting Impact

Mortgage industry veteran Patrick Coon, Senior Vice President of Default and Loss Mitigation at U.S. Bank, has been honored with the 2025 Five Star Lifetime Achievement Award—a recognition of his four-decade career built on leadership, empathy, and humility. Known as a “leader who cares,” Coon’s story illustrates how people-first values can drive both professional excellence and personal impact.
Coon’s career began in consumer finance with Ford Motor Credit, American Express, and Associates First Capital before a pivotal 1998 phone call led him to Chase Manhattan and into mortgage servicing. There, he managed thousands of employees across seven sites, embracing a steep learning curve with gratitude and collaboration.
A Leadership Philosophy Rooted in People
Coon’s management style centers on four principles: equip your people, balance short-term and long-term goals, lead with optimism, and always put people first. He believes in empowering teams, sustaining vision beyond profit cycles, and leading with positivity—especially in times of crisis.
His leadership is deeply shaped by personal values, many inspired by his wife Alison, who reminds him to focus on service and compassion. “She doesn’t ask me how my day was—she asks what I did for someone that day,” he says.
The Mentor’s Mentor
Coon’s legacy extends through the many leaders he has mentored. Former colleagues describe him as an “executive dad” who guides with wisdom and empathy. Douglas Whittemore (Selene Finance) credits Coon with shaping his career and values, while James Campbell (RoundPoint Mortgage) calls him “a coach with an eye for potential.”
His influence, colleagues say, lies not in commanding attention, but in listening deeply and leading quietly—traits he learned from early mentors like Ford’s Jim Overby and ServiceMac CEO Robert Caruso.
Resilience Through Change
Coon’s career has weathered massive industry disruptions, from the 2008 financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic, which he cites as one of the most transformative periods for leadership and empathy. He praises the industry’s rapid digital adaptation and its ability to “balance innovation and compassion under pressure.”
A personal setback—losing his job in his 50s—became a defining moment. “My wife reminded me that a job doesn’t define your value,” he recalls. “It helped me rediscover what really matters: faith, family, and purpose.”
Words of Wisdom
For young professionals entering the mortgage field, Coon emphasizes humility, adaptability, and empathy:
“Welcome change—it’s not always in your control, but it’s always an opportunity. Be confident, but stay humble. The people who succeed in this business aren’t just smart—they’re kind and curious.”
He advises focusing on relationships, not just transactions, and on listening to people’s stories to truly connect.
A Legacy of Heart
Coon’s impact reaches far beyond his professional achievements. From mentoring rising leaders to simple acts of kindness—like carrying a box for a reporter—his legacy is one of service and humanity.
“I’m not special,” Coon says. “But I am especially blessed. If people remember me, I hope they remember me as someone who was part of a team that made a difference.”
His career stands as a testament to the power of humility, mentorship, and heart-centered leadership—a reminder that the greatest legacy in business isn’t measured in titles or transactions, but in the lives one touches along the way.
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#RealEstateInvesting #BlanketMortgage #PropertyFinancing #InvestmentLoans #PortfolioLending #realestatestrategy 
 

What is a Blanket Mortgage, and Who Should Get One

A blanket mortgage is a single loan that covers multiple real estate properties under one agreement, offering real estate investors a streamlined way to finance, manage, and grow their portfolios. Instead of juggling several individual mortgages, borrowers make one monthly payment to a single lender, with all properties serving as collateral. A key feature—the release clause—allows investors to sell or refinance individual properties without affecting the rest of the loan.
How Blanket Mortgages Work
Blanket mortgages function like traditional loans but with higher complexity and stricter requirements. They’re mainly used by experienced investors, developers, and real estate companies managing multiple projects. Lenders typically require:
Strong credit and income history
Larger down payments (up to 50%)
Detailed property and financial documentation
Proven experience managing multiple properties
 
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#RealEstateInvesting #BlanketMortgage #PropertyFinancing #InvestmentLoans #PortfolioLending #RealEstateStrategy
 

Commercial Real Estate Steps Into the Blockchain Era What Investors Need to Know

The commercial real estate (CRE) industry is entering a new technological era as blockchain moves from concept to real-world application—transforming how properties are financed, owned, and traded. While early “bitcoin home sales” were largely symbolic, today’s focus is on blockchain’s underlying architecture—a secure, decentralized ledger capable of recording billions of real estate transactions, titles, and contracts with transparency and permanence.
 
Industry experts, including Tony Giordano of The Opulent Agency, describe blockchain as a “virtual filing cabinet for the planet,” offering a tamper-proof, automated way to manage assets. The shift is especially significant for commercial markets, where multi-party contracts, financing logistics, and complex ownership structures make efficiency and security crucial.
 
Tokenization: Opening Access to CRE
One of blockchain’s most disruptive innovations is tokenization—turning property ownership rights into digital tokens that can be traded or fractionally owned. This democratizes access to high-value assets, allowing smaller investors to buy into major commercial projects. Though regulatory hurdles limit U.S. adoption, global markets are accelerating; Deloitte projects tokenized assets could reach $4 trillion by 2035, up from $300 billion in 2024.
Tokenization could make real estate trading as liquid and continuous as stock markets, unlocking vast pools of capital for developers and investors alike.
 
Blockchain’s Impact on Real Estate Finance
Blockchain is also reshaping property financing. Firms like BV Innovation are using the technology to create transferable mortgage bonds powered by AI, enabling loans—and their interest rates—to move between properties without costly prepayment penalties. AI-driven analysis ensures compliance and creditworthiness, dramatically reducing administrative friction and improving flexibility for both borrowers and lenders.
 
As Giordano explains, “The borrower doesn’t need to understand blockchain—they just need to know it works and saves them millions.”
 
Why Adoption Is Accelerating
With the CRE market facing tight credit, declining liquidity, and fluctuating valuations, blockchain’s ability to cut transaction costs by up to 50% and reduce closing times from months to days is becoming increasingly valuable. By eliminating intermediaries and automating documentation, blockchain promises faster, cheaper, and safer property transactions—key advantages in today’s uncertain financial climate.
 
The Next Decade: A Digital Transformation
Analysts expect the next ten years to be a turning point for blockchain adoption in real estate. As regulations mature, property systems will become increasingly digitized, tokenized, and globally interconnected. Blockchain could soon serve as the new standard for ownership verification, financing, and asset management, much like title insurance or escrow today.
 
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#Blockchain #CommercialRealEstate #PropTech #Tokenization #AIinFinance #RealEstateInnovation #DigitalAssets
 
#FederalReserve #ClimateRisk #BankingRegulation #FinancialPolicy #OCC #FDIC #ClimateFinance
 

Fed, OCC, and FDIC Repeal Climate Risk Guidance Amid Broader Policy Realignment

In a sweeping regulatory shift, the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have repealed their 2023 climate risk guidance, ending requirements for banks to incorporate climate-related risks into stress testing and financial reporting. Regulators said existing safety and soundness standards already cover all material risks — including environmental events — making separate climate policies “unnecessary.”
 
The move marks a major policy reversal from recent years, when U.S. regulators pushed banks to assess exposure to climate-linked disasters like floods, wildfires, and hurricanes. Under the new approach, banks will no longer be required to maintain dedicated climate risk frameworks, reflecting what officials call a “refocus on core financial oversight.”
 
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman praised the rollback, arguing it eliminates confusion and compliance costs, saying the Fed’s mission “does not extend to climate policymaking.” But former Vice Chair Michael Barr, who helped craft the prior rules, called the repeal “shortsighted,” warning it leaves the system “more vulnerable to climate-related shocks.”
 
For banks, the repeal reduces short-term regulatory burdens and restores flexibility in how they account for environmental risks. However, analysts note it could create long-term uncertainty, as global regulators — especially in Europe — continue to emphasize climate-related financial disclosure.
 
The decision also reflects a broader policy realignment under the Trump administration, which has scaled back climate oversight across federal agencies, including the SEC’s paused climate disclosure rule. Supporters say markets—not regulators—should determine how to price environmental risks, while critics warn that ignoring them could expose U.S. banks to unforeseen losses.
 
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#FederalReserve #ClimateRisk #BankingRegulation #FinancialPolicy #OCC #FDIC #ClimateFinance
 

Survey Reveals Hidden Struggles and Successes of Modern Real Estate Agents

A new Kaplan Real Estate Education survey reveals how today’s real estate agents are adapting to a rapidly changing industry marked by market uncertainty, evolving client expectations, and the growing influence of technology. The Real Estate Survey of Trends, based on responses from over 750 licensed agents nationwide, offers a candid look at the profession’s realities—from motivation and income to challenges, skills, and the rise of AI tools.
 
Who Are Today’s Agents
The modern real estate workforce is slightly more female than male, dominated by Millennials and Gen X, with most agents earning over $100,000 annually and working primarily in residential real estate (88%). Flexibility and financial opportunity are the top motivators: 76% joined the profession to boost income, while nearly half cited the freedom to manage their schedule.
 
Agents often come from diverse backgrounds — including healthcare (11%), education (10%), and finance (10%) — bringing a range of skills into the industry. More than half (55%) have five or more years of experience, while nearly 43% work part-time, often balancing other jobs or family responsibilities.
 
The Realities of the Job
Life as a real estate agent is demanding despite perceptions of flexibility. The average agent handled seven transactions in the past year, with listings averaging $500,000 and staying on the market about six weeks.
 Top challenges include lead generation (39%) and market fluctuations (36%). Many agents expressed a lack of professional guidance—18% said they receive little or no support from their brokers or mentors.
Skills, Marketing, and Business Growth
 
Communication tops the list of critical skills, with active listening and empathy seen as key to client trust. However, agents report skill gaps in negotiation and market analysis, areas where many seek further training.
Social media is now the leading marketing channel: over 50% credit platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok for their best results. Video tours and behind-the-scenes content are proving most effective. Traditional tools like brokerage websites (43%) and referral networks (35%) still matter, but personal branding online increasingly drives deals.
 
Referrals remain vital—63% of business comes from friends and family, far outpacing social media (35%).
Economic Sentiment and Market Outlook
Despite uncertainty, most agents remain cautiously optimistic:
67% believe it’s a good time to buy
66% believe it’s a good time to sell
35% expect mortgage rates to fall in the next year
Nearly half expect their client base to grow
 
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#SurveyRevealsHiddenStruggles #SuccessesofModernRealEstate #ModernRealEstateAgents #SurveyUncoverstheRealities #TodaysRealEstateAgents #ChallengesShapingTodays #InsideTheRealEstateHustle #WhatAgentsAreReallyFacingIn2025 #RevealedByNewSurvey #BeARealEstateAgentIn2025 #BehindTheListings #TheRealChallengesAgents #SuccessInRealEstate #RealtorSuccessStories #RealEstateMarketInsights #RealEstateTrends #ForumNadlanUSA

Home Prices Close In on Record Highs as Affordability Sinks to Historic Low

After years of bidding wars and sky-high prices, the U.S. housing market is finally cooling, shifting power back toward buyers for the first time in nearly six years. A new Redfin analysis reveals that buyer competition fell sharply in September as listings increased and mortgage rates eased, giving house hunters more leverage to negotiate.
 
Only 25.3% of homes sold above list price last month—the lowest September figure since 2019—while the average sale-to-list ratio slipped to 98.6%, meaning sellers are increasingly accepting offers below asking. Homes also took longer to sell, averaging 50 days on market, the slowest pace for a September in almost a decade.
 
This slowdown is providing long-awaited breathing room for buyers. “Buyers are walking back into the market with more confidence,” said Roze Swartz, a Redfin agent in Houston. “But sellers need to be realistic—pricing high and waiting no longer works.” Many agents now recommend starting with lower list prices and using incentives to attract interest.
 
Regionally, the Midwest is leading in price growth—with Milwaukee, Detroit, and Cleveland up more than 7%—while Texas metros like Dallas and Austin are seeing price declines. Inventory rose 8% year-over-year, giving buyers more choices, particularly in Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, and Seattle.
 
Despite softening competition, prices remain elevated, with the median home price rising 1.7% year-over-year to $435,545, a record for September. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, around 6.35%, continues to support modest buyer activity, though many remain cautious amid economic uncertainty.
 
Analysts describe the current market as a “controlled cooldown”—not a crash, but a gradual return to balance. Sellers are losing pricing power, buyers are regaining leverage, and negotiation has replaced frenzy. As Redfin summarized:
“For the first time in years, the question isn’t how fast prices will rise—it’s how much power buyers will reclaim before the next cycle begins.”
 
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#HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #HomeBuying #MortgageRates #BuyersMarket #redfinger