The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

Experts Raise Red Flags Over Proposed 50 Year Mortgage Plan “A Lifelong Debt, Not a Dream”

A new Trump administration proposal to introduce 50-year home loans is sparking intense debate among economists and housing industry leaders. While FHFA Director Bill Pulte hailed the plan as a “complete game changer” that could ease affordability pressures, experts warn it may do the opposite — locking buyers into lifelong debt and adding risk to the nation’s mortgage system.
At first glance, stretching payments across five decades might sound like relief for cash-strapped buyers. But analysts argue the numbers don’t work in borrowers’ favor. “A 50-year mortgage may lower monthly payments slightly, but borrowers end up paying nearly double the total interest,” said Sandeep Shivam of Tavant. He added that the slower pace of equity growth could leave homeowners financially vulnerable for decades, especially during downturns.
Lenders could also face new challenges managing risk. “AI-based underwriting models aren’t built to predict borrower behavior over 50 years,” Shivam warned. “Without real-time tracking of property and market trends, this could introduce hidden systemic risks for lenders.”
Critics say the plan creates an illusion of affordability without addressing the root causes of the housing crisis. “It doesn’t make buyers stronger,” said Tushar Garg, CEO of Flyhomes. “Nearly 30% of homes today are bought with cash — sellers value certainty, not stretched-out payments.” Garg cautioned that longer loans could leave many households “house poor,” paying forever with little flexibility or wealth accumulation.
Financial planners are equally concerned. Bobbi Rebell, CFP at BadCredit.org, called the proposal a “lifetime loan.” “Borrowers may still be paying mortgages into their 70s or 80s,” she said. “The payments seem smaller, but the long-term cost is staggering — people pay interest for decades before even touching the principal.”
Industry leaders argue that reform, not extension, is the real solution. Marc Halpern, CEO of Foundation Mortgage, said, “We don’t need 50-year loans — we need smarter underwriting that reflects today’s income realities. Bank statement and 1099-based programs already help millions qualify responsibly.”
Experts agree the 50-year mortgage is a risky shortcut to a complex problem. Instead of fixing affordability through innovation, it could deepen financial strain for generations. “It’s a symptom of a broken system,” Halpern said. “True affordability comes from building more homes, raising incomes, and modernizing lending — not from chaining families to 50 years of debt.”
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#HousingMarket #MortgageRates #HomeAffordability #FHFA #RealEstate
 

Mortgage Rates Ride: a Rollercoaster Week Economic Data Brings Both Relief and Resistance

Mortgage rates swung sharply last week as traders reacted to a rare batch of private-sector economic data filling the void left by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Without official reports on jobs or inflation, markets turned to alternative indicators — sparking brief surges and reversals that ultimately left rates near where they began.
The volatility began midweek after ADP’s private payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected job gains in October, followed by a robust reading from the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) services index, which hit its third-highest level in over two years. The upbeat data pushed bond yields higher, sending mortgage rates to their highest levels in nearly a month.
However, late-week releases brought relief. A “synthetic job count” from Revelio Labs showed a mild employment decline, while the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index posted its weakest “current conditions” reading in the survey’s 70-year history. Those weaker signals cooled yields and helped rates retreat from midweek highs. By Friday, mortgage rates had effectively risen and fallen back to start the week flat, underscoring the market’s indecision.
“Markets are essentially flying blind right now,” said one mortgage analyst. “Every private data point is being overanalyzed, so we’re seeing outsized rate reactions without clear direction.”
Adding to the week’s buzz, Fannie Mae confirmed plans to remove its minimum credit score requirement for conventional loans — but experts clarified that this was an operational change, not a policy shift. Borrowers with scores below 620 still face major lending barriers and higher costs, meaning loan eligibility standards remain unchanged.
For now, mortgage rates remain range-bound, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving within a narrow band. Analysts expect continued volatility until the shutdown ends and official data resumes.
With no clear trend in sight, borrowers may want to lock in rates during favorable dips rather than waiting for a decisive move. As one strategist put it: “Rates are stuck in a tug-of-war between optimism and uncertainty — and neither side is winning yet.”
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#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #BondMarket #EconomicData #interestrates 
 

Mortgage Rates Inch Up Slightly but Stay Within November Range

Mortgage rates edged up slightly to start the week but remain largely unchanged within the tight range that has defined early November, according to the latest market data. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased just 0.02% from Friday, a move analysts described as “more of a rounding error than a real shift.” Despite losing some late-week momentum from Friday’s bond rally, rates continue to hold steady within a 0.10% range since late October — signaling stability amid ongoing economic and political uncertainty.
Markets remain sensitive to the prolonged government shutdown and speculation about when it will end. Friday’s weak consumer sentiment report briefly pushed bond yields lower, hinting at a possible rate dip, but those gains evaporated before markets reopened Monday. The result is a calm, range-bound mortgage environment with lenders maintaining rate sheets close to recent averages.
With bond markets closed Tuesday for Veterans Day, analysts expect little movement until midweek. When trading resumes Wednesday, investors will focus on any developments in Washington. A breakthrough in reopening the government could spark a mild bond sell-off and nudge rates higher, while further delays or uncertainty could push yields lower as investors seek safety.
For borrowers, the message is steady but cautious optimism. Rates remain in the low 6% range, nearly 0.75% below June’s highs and well under 2024’s average. Experts advise that while dramatic swings are unlikely, now may be a good time to lock in a rate, given the possibility of market movement once the shutdown ends.
Overall, the mortgage market is holding its balance between optimism and caution, reflecting a “wait-and-see” sentiment. As one analyst summarized: “We’re still in a holding pattern — rates are steady, markets are quiet, and everyone’s waiting for clarity.
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#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #BondMarket
 

Stock Market Strength Keeps Economy Afloat — But a Weak Labor Market Could End the Rally

The U.S. economy remains propped up by the stock market’s strength, but economists warn that cracks in the labor market could quickly derail the fragile balance. While the S&P 500 is up more than 16% year-to-date and the Nasdaq nearly 22%, lifting investor sentiment and consumer spending among wealthier Americans, recent data from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index shows overall optimism fading. The index dropped 6% in November and sits 30% lower than a year ago, with most households citing concerns about the prolonged federal government shutdown and rising economic uncertainty.
In stark contrast, affluent Americans with significant stock holdings reported an 11% rise in confidence, buoyed by portfolio gains and rising home values. Economists say this underscores a “K-shaped economy” — one where the wealthy thrive on asset growth while working- and middle-class families struggle with inflation and stagnant wages. “The top end of the market is thriving, but traditional sectors like retail and manufacturing are slowing,” said Joe Brusuelas of RSM US LLP. “The AI boom and rising equity valuations are masking deep structural stress for lower-income households.”
The resilience of the stock market has so far cushioned spending in luxury and high-end services, helped by strong home equity and low mortgage rates among upper-income households. Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial noted that rising home equity and fiscal optimism surrounding President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” have reinforced expectations of corporate profit growth, keeping markets buoyant. Yet, the sustainability of this strength depends on whether the labor market holds up.
Recent surveys point to slower hiring and reduced work hours, especially among small businesses. Wage growth is cooling, and with the government shutdown halting official job reports, analysts fear the slowdown could already be taking hold. “The stock market is acting as if the top of the K can carry the rest of the economy indefinitely,” said Luke Tilley of M&T Bank. “That’s not sustainable — once job growth turns negative, markets follow.”
For now, the U.S. economy remains resilient but fragile, powered by investor wealth and confidence rather than broad-based income gains. Economists warn that without a stable labor market, even affluent consumers may soon curb spending, risking both consumer confidence and market momentum. As Brusuelas summed up, “The wealth effect is keeping things afloat, but it’s not a substitute for real economic strength. If the labor market cracks, the illusion of stability could disappear overnight.
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#USEconomy #StockMarket #LaborMarket #ConsumerConfidence #EconomicOutlook
 

U S Housing Market Stalls as Buyers Hesitate Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

The U.S. housing market is entering a cautious phase as buyers hesitate despite lower mortgage rates, according to the latest Redfin report. Pending home sales rose only 0.7% year-over-year for the four weeks ending November 2, marking the slowest growth in four months. 
 
Homes are also taking longer to sell, averaging 48 days on the market, the longest for October since 2019. Experts say buyers are still active but increasingly selective, prioritizing financial security amid lingering uncertainty about inflation, job stability, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
 
Although mortgage rates dipped to 6.17%, their lowest in over a year, the decline hasn’t fully reignited demand. The median monthly housing payment fell 2.1% year-over-year to $2,508, yet buyers remain cautious after several short-lived rate drops earlier this year. Analysts say affordability challenges persist as home prices keep climbing, recording the largest six-month increase in over a year.
 
Regionally, Florida leads the way in buyer activity. West Palm Beach (+22.8%), Tampa (+16.2%), and Fort Lauderdale (+12.2%) topped the list for pending sales growth, while high-cost markets like Seattle (-16.8%) and San Jose (-11.1%) saw notable slowdowns. Nationwide, new listings rose 4% year-over-year, and active listings climbed 6.7%, bringing total supply to 4.7 months — a sign that sellers are re-entering the market, though homes are moving more slowly and fewer are selling above list price.
 
The median sale price reached $392,375, up 2% year-over-year, with the Rust Belt cities of Detroit (+11.6%) and Cleveland (+9.6%) leading the nation in price growth. In contrast, Dallas (-3.3%) and Jacksonville (-3.5%) saw mild price declines. Inventory gains were strongest in Tampa, Phoenix, and Philadelphia, where more homeowners are listing properties amid steady demand.
 
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#HousingMarket #MortgageRates #HomeSales #RealEstateTrends #Affordability

Office, Retail, and Hotel Originations Surge as Commercial Lending Momentum Builds

The commercial real estate lending market is showing strong signs of revival as office, retail, and hotel originations surged in Q3 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest report. Total commercial and multifamily originations climbed 18% from the prior quarter and 36% year-over-year, marking the fifth straight quarter of growth. Analysts say the uptick reflects stabilizing property values, renewed investor confidence, and increased refinancing activity after several years of volatility and high borrowing costs.
 
MBA’s Reggie Booker noted that “borrowing has now increased for five straight quarters across most property types,” with office, retail, and hotel lending leading the rebound. Office originations soared 181% year-over-year, the strongest among all categories, signaling recovery and repositioning across post-pandemic workspaces. 
 
Retail loans jumped 100%, boosted by higher consumer spending and adaptive reuse of old retail sites, while hotel originations rose 66% amid resurgent travel demand. Multifamily lending climbed 27%, while industrial lending grew modestly by 5%. Only healthcare properties lagged, down 43% year-over-year.
 
The momentum extended quarter-over-quarter, with retail lending up 141%, hotel 76%, and office 67% from Q2. Meanwhile, funding sources became more diverse — investor-driven lenders posted an 83% year-over-year jump, followed by depository institutions (+52%) and GSEs (+40%), while life insurance companies took a more cautious approach, cutting back 4%.
 
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#CommercialRealEstate #MortgageLending #OfficeMarketRecovery #RetailRebound #HotelInvestment

Trump Administration Pushes for Crypto Backed Mortgages — A New Era in Home Financing

The Trump administration is taking a bold step toward merging cryptocurrency and housing finance, directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to explore ways to include digital assets in mortgage risk assessments. Backed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the plan could allow homebuyers to use crypto holdings as part of their financial profile when applying for a mortgage — marking the first time the U.S. housing finance system formally considers crypto wealth in loan decisions.
FHFA Director Bill Pulte described the initiative as part of President Donald Trump’s vision to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” Under the directive, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must draft proposals on how to account for cryptocurrency in underwriting, treating it similarly to stocks or bonds while acknowledging its volatility. Experts say this move could modernize how financial institutions assess wealth, especially as Bitcoin and Ethereum mature and gain mainstream recognition.
Supporters of the plan view it as a major leap forward in financial innovation, aligning the U.S. with nations like Switzerland, Singapore, and the UAE, where crypto-collateralized lending is already being tested. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) praised the effort, arguing that digital assets are now “a fundamental part of many Americans’ wealth portfolios” and should be recognized in home financing. Proponents believe it could expand homeownership access for younger, tech-oriented buyers who hold wealth in crypto rather than traditional savings.
However, critics are raising alarms. A group of Democratic senators sent a letter to the FHFA calling the proposal “risky and premature,” warning that crypto’s extreme volatility could introduce systemic risks to the housing market. They urged greater transparency, risk studies, and congressional oversight before implementing any changes. Experts caution that while recognizing crypto as part of a borrower’s assets could be beneficial, using it as direct collateral would pose significant risks.
Economists suggest that a measured approach—crediting only a portion of crypto’s market value in mortgage assessments—could strike a balance between innovation and stability. As U.S. housing affordability continues to challenge buyers, especially with home prices near $400,000 and rates above 6%, incorporating crypto wealth could help more Americans qualify for mortgages.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to submit detailed proposals to the FHFA in early 2026, outlining how crypto assets can be safely integrated into mortgage underwriting. Whether seen as a visionary modernization or a dangerous experiment, this initiative marks a defining moment in the convergence of digital finance and homeownership—one that could permanently reshape the future of U.S. housing.
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#CryptoMortgage #FHFA #HousingInnovation #DigitalAssets #Homeownership
 

International Buyers Still Favor U S Homes, But Demand Begins to Cool

International buyers are still drawn to the U.S. housing market, but new data from Realtor.com shows demand is beginning to cool slightly after years of steady strength. In the third quarter of 2025, foreign shoppers accounted for 1.5% of all U.S. home search traffic, down modestly from 1.6% a year earlier, though still above pre-pandemic levels. Experts say the shift reflects higher home prices, a stronger dollar, and global economic 
uncertainty—factors making even America’s top real estate markets feel more expensive to overseas buyers.
Miami continues to dominate as the most sought-after metro, capturing 8.4% of all foreign search activity. It was followed by New York (5.6%), Los Angeles (4.8%), Orlando (2.7%), and Dallas (2.7%). Analysts note Miami’s unique mix of luxury living, rental potential, and cultural appeal keeps it at the top, even as luxury interest cools overall.
One of the report’s standout findings is the narrowing price gap between homes viewed by domestic and international shoppers. On average, foreign buyers looked at listings 29.8% more expensive than U.S. shoppers did—a drop from 34.2% last year—as global buyers shift focus from ultra-luxury properties toward more value-oriented investments.
Among the most notable disparities, Los Angeles leads with foreign buyers viewing homes 173% pricier than locals, followed by New York (49%) and San Francisco (33%). Conversely, cities like Orlando, Tampa, and Dallas show minimal differences, signaling rising appeal among buyers seeking affordability and growth potential.
 
Canada remains the largest source of international housing interest, making up 32.1% of foreign traffic, though that’s down from 36.6% in 2024. Buyers from the U.K., Mexico, Germany, and Australia follow closely, with many drawn to warm-weather metros and strong rental markets.
Looking ahead, analysts say U.S. real estate remains a global safe haven, but demand is shifting. New visa and investment programs could bolster activity in major coastal cities, while tighter immigration policies may temper interest in tech hubs like Austin and Seattle.
Even with the slowdown, the U.S. continues to stand out as a stable, opportunity-rich housing market—especially for international buyers prioritizing long-term value over short-term speculation.
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#InternationalRealEstate #USHousingMarket #GlobalInvestors #MiamiRealEstate #HousingTrends
 

FHLB Dallas Awards $73 5 Million to Strengthen Affordable Housing Across the South

The Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas (FHLB Dallas) has awarded $73.5 million in Affordable Housing Program (AHP) grants to strengthen affordable housing efforts across six southern states—Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Texas. The funding will support 53 community projects, creating or rehabilitating 3,777 housing units for families, seniors, and individuals struggling with economic hardship.
FHLB Dallas President and CEO Sanjay Bhasin emphasized that the initiative reflects the power of collaboration between the bank and its member financial institutions, noting that the AHP remains “one of the most powerful tools we have” for addressing housing needs. The program dedicates 10% of the bank’s annual net income to community housing investments and has supported tens of thousands of affordable units since its inception.
This year’s awards, distributed through 26 member institutions, will fund developments ranging from multi-family rentals and senior housing to transitional shelters and supportive homes for people exiting homelessness. 
Projects are tailored to local needs: Texas will see workforce housing and rural rehabilitation efforts, Louisiana and Mississippi will focus on hurricane-resilient construction, New Mexico and Arkansas will expand affordable rentals, and Colorado will prioritize sustainable, energy-efficient upgrades.
Founded in 1932, FHLB Dallas is part of the nationwide FHLBank System, serving roughly 800 institutions with total assets exceeding $116 billion. Its AHP grants are vital for nonprofit developers and local governments in regions hit hard by affordability crises and natural disasters.
Experts say the funding comes at a critical moment as housing costs outpace incomes and rental availability tightens across the South. By partnering with community banks and housing groups, FHLB Dallas aims to revitalize neighborhoods, create jobs, and strengthen economic mobility.
“Affordable housing is the foundation of strong communities,” Bhasin said. “When people have a safe and affordable place to live, everything else—education, employment, and opportunity—becomes possible.”
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#AffordableHousing #FHLBDallas #CommunityInvestment #HousingEquity #SouthernHousing
 

Consumer and Civil Rights Groups Warn FHFA’s 2026–2028 Housing Goals Could Exacerbate Affordability

A coalition of consumer, housing, and civil rights organizations is warning that the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) proposed 2026–2028 housing goals could make homeownership even harder to achieve for low- and moderate-income families. In a joint letter led by the Consumer Federation of America (CFA) and signed by 27 advocacy groups, the organizations argue that the FHFA’s plan to reduce GSE home purchase targets for low- and very-low-income borrowers could shut out up to 177,000 families from securing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac–backed mortgages over the next three years.
At the center of the controversy is the FHFA’s proposal to merge two long-standing subgoals—one focused on low-income census tracts and another on minority census tracts—into a single, broader benchmark. Advocates say this move would weaken accountability, dilute focus on minority communities, and roll back decades of progress toward fair housing access. “This proposal undermines decades of progress,” the coalition wrote, emphasizing that the GSEs are meant to lead—not lag—the industry in expanding credit access.
CFA’s housing director Sharon Cornelissen called the proposal “blatantly restrictive” and said it would worsen the affordability crisis by excluding families who are creditworthy but struggling with today’s high mortgage rates and record home prices. Research from the Urban Institute and the Congressional Budget Office supports the advocates’ position, showing that strong GSE housing goals have historically helped lower borrowing costs and expand credit in underserved areas.
Housing experts warn that adopting these weaker targets could deepen racial and economic inequities at a time when the U.S. housing market faces extreme affordability pressures. National home prices are up over 40% since 2020, while mortgage rates hover near 6.3%, leaving many families priced out of ownership.
The FHFA’s proposal remains open for public comment, and advocacy groups are calling on Congress and policymakers to intervene. “We should be strengthening, not weakening, the tools that help families build generational wealth through homeownership,” Cornelissen said. With affordability near historic lows, the outcome of this debate could shape the future of housing equity and access for years to come.
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#HousingAffordability #FHFA #Homeownership #CivilRights #MortgageAccess