The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

U S Housing Supply Grows Again, But Market Shows Signs of Slowing

Housing supply continued to grow in October, giving buyers more options for the second full year in a row. According to Realtor.com, active listings rose 15.3% from last year and remained above one million for the sixth straight month. But while inventory is improving, the momentum seen earlier in the year is slowing, and the market is still more than 13% below pre-pandemic supply levels. All four major regions posted gains, with the West and South up 17%, the Midwest up 12%, and the Northeast up 9%. Even the nation’s 50 largest metro areas saw year-over-year increases, with Washington, DC, Charlotte, and Las Vegas leading due to a mix of more sellers entering the market and buyer demand weakening.
 
Despite the extra inventory, buyers are moving cautiously. Homes are taking longer to sell, sitting an average of 63 days on the market — five days longer than a year ago and marking 19 consecutive months of slower sales. Pending home sales dipped 1.9% year-over-year, and while new listings were slightly higher than last year, they still fell month-to-month in line with seasonal patterns. This shows that supply is rising not because of a wave of new demand, but because buyers are pulling back and waiting for better clarity on rates and economic conditions.
 
Prices remained mostly stable nationwide, with the average list price at $424,200, up only 0.4% from last year. Regional differences stood out: prices fell in the South and West, held steady in the Northeast, and rose slightly in the Midwest. Price cuts remain common, especially in markets where inventory has surged, such as Denver and Portland. Meanwhile, markets like Hartford and Chicago remain far below historical inventory levels, highlighting how uneven the recovery still is across the country.
 
This month’s data also reflects the impact of the ongoing federal shutdown. Cities with large federal workforces — such as Washington, DC, Virginia Beach, Oklahoma City, and Baltimore — are seeing fewer new listings and reduced buyer activity as families delay decisions over job security and missed paychecks. With buyers still cautious and inventory gains slowing, the housing market appears to be settling into a more balanced but slower phase. Conditions are improving, but at a gradual pace that signals a market stabilizing rather than accelerating.
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#HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstateTrends #HomeInventory #MarketShift #HousingNews

Buyers Pause as Mortgage Rates Hold Above 6% and Housing Costs Climb

A new Redfin analysis shows that more homebuyers are stepping back as rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty slow the housing market. Pending home sales slipped 0.3% year over year during the four weeks ending November 9 — a small decline, but the first drop in four months. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with the typical property now going under contract in 49 days, the slowest pace for this time of year since 2019. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but buyers are clearly acting more cautiously as affordability pressures grow.
 
After briefly falling to a one-year low of 6.17%, mortgage rates climbed again to 6.22% following signals from the Federal Reserve that a December rate cut is unlikely. At the same time, home-sale prices have risen 2.4% from last year — the fastest pace in six months — adding more strain for buyers already stretched thin. A recent Redfin survey shows just how hesitant consumers have become: 20% of Americans are delaying major purchases because of the government shutdown, and 15% have canceled a big purchase altogether. Even as new listings climb 3.4% year over year, creating more options for buyers, many shoppers simply aren’t ready to make a move.
 
Some buyers are holding out for mortgage rates to drop below 6%, hoping for better affordability. But agents warn that waiting could lead to more competition later. If rates fall noticeably, pent-up demand could surge and bring back bidding wars. And if prices fall, it might signal broader economic weakness, including job losses — something buyers are also worried about. For now, those who can afford to buy may find a quieter market with more negotiating power, including sellers willing to cut prices or offer concessions.
 
Even with softer demand, sellers still have an advantage in many markets because there are more listings than active buyers. Homes priced realistically from the start are getting the most attention. The overall direction of the market will depend on where rates go next and how quickly the economy stabilizes. If mortgage rates stay above 6% and uncertainty lingers, many buyers will remain on the sidelines. But if rates drop or economic confidence improves, housing activity could rebound quickly heading into 2026.
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#HousingMarketUpdate #MortgageRates #HomebuyerTrends #RealEstateNews #MarketShift

Purchase Demand Hits Highest Point in Nearly Three Years as Buyers Return to the Market

Mortgage applications ticked up again last week, signaling a steady improvement in housing market activity even as mortgage rates saw a slight increase. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, total application volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending November 7. 
 
While unadjusted volume slipped by 1%, the underlying trend shows growing buyer interest as the year winds down. Refinance activity fell 3% for the week, but compared to last year, refi demand remains extremely strong—up 147% from this time in 2024. Even with the recent rate uptick pulling the average refinance loan amount to its lowest level in more than a month, refinance volume is still operating at a much healthier post-pandemic pace.
 
Purchase activity saw the biggest boost, rising 6% seasonally adjusted to its strongest level since September. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said buyers are stepping back in across all major loan types—conventional, FHA, and VA—particularly in markets where inventory is growing and price appreciation has cooled. On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications were up 3% for the week and stand 31% higher than a year ago, making this the strongest early November for purchase demand since 2022. The share of refinances made up 55.6% of all mortgage applications, with adjustable-rate mortgages slipping to 7.8%. FHA volume rose to 19.4%, VA applications dipped to 14.8%, and USDA loans remained unchanged.
 
Mortgage rates saw modest upward movement, with the 30-year fixed rising to 6.34%, the 15-year reaching 5.70%, and jumbo rates climbing to 6.46%. Despite the slight increases, rates remain well below the highs of 2023 and continue to give both buyers and refinancing homeowners more breathing room. With mortgage rates holding in a moderate range and more homes hitting the market, both purchase and refinance activity are showing stronger momentum than earlier in the year. These signs suggest that demand is stabilizing and could finish the year on a firmer footing than many expected.
 
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U S Housing Supply Expected to Grow in 2026 as Market Slowly Recovers

The 2025 housing market unfolded almost exactly as First American projected—slow, steady, and marked by small steps forward rather than a full recovery. Mortgage rates eased into the high-5% to low-6% range, affordability improved slightly as home prices cooled, and inventory rose gradually throughout the year. 
 
Even so, the market remained far from normal, with high prices and the ongoing lock-in effect keeping many homeowners from listing their properties. As 2026 approaches, First American expects the same forces that shaped 2025—tight supply in some regions, improving affordability, and strong life-driven demand—to continue playing a major role. The forecast highlights six key drivers for 2026: expanding supply, affordability trends, demographic pressure, regional differences, new-home strength, and pockets of financial stress.
 
Affordability is expected to improve only slowly. Mortgage rates are projected to stay in the low-6% range, and while a dip below that is possible, experts say rates alone won’t jumpstart the market. Instead, the bigger boost will likely come from rising inventory and stable home price growth. Home prices saw their slowest appreciation since 2012, and incomes grew faster than prices in many markets—a trend that, if it continues, will help more buyers enter the market. 
 
Another powerful force is pent-up demand. Between 2022 and 2025, roughly 4 million fewer home sales occurred each year compared to the pre-pandemic norm, meaning millions of households delayed buying or selling. With more than 50 million Americans now in their 30s, life events—marriage, children, relocation, downsizing, and caregiving—will continue to push people into the market even if rates remain elevated.
 
However, the market will vary dramatically by region. The Northeast and Midwest still face very tight inventory, and these areas are likely to see continued price stability and competitive conditions in 2026. Meanwhile, the South and West have far more homes for sale, including a surge of new construction. 
 
Metros like Austin and Tampa, which saw rapid price spikes during the pandemic boom, now have more supply than buyers, forcing sellers and builders to cut prices or offer incentives. This creates what experts call a “two-speed market” for 2026—softening conditions in the South and West, and ongoing tightness in the Northeast and Midwest. Rising insurance costs in coastal states may widen that divide further.
 
Foreclosure activity has risen but remains manageable. Analysts don’t expect a wave of distress, as most homeowners have strong equity and steady jobs. The two biggest triggers for foreclosure crises—large-scale job losses and widespread negative equity—are not present on a national scale. Stress is concentrated among households with high insurance expenses, thinner financial cushions, or mortgages from the peak-price years.
 
Listing activity, though still far below normal, is steadily increasing. More sellers in 2025 accepted the reality that rates may not drop back to pandemic levels, and many decided to move anyway for family or career reasons. Inventory turnover improved from 1.4% to nearly 1.5% during the year—still well under the historic 2.5%, but moving in the right direction. 
 
Builders remain cautiously active, offering aggressive incentives to attract buyers. Despite softer demand, new construction will continue to play a key role in 2026, especially as many existing homeowners remain locked into 3–4% mortgages and hesitate to list.
 
Overall, First American expects 2026 to be another year of gradual progress. The market won’t fully reset, but more supply, stable prices, rising incomes, and steady life-driven demand will help move buyers and sellers off the sidelines. The housing landscape will still be uneven, but it will take one more step toward balance, setting the stage for a healthier market in the years ahead.
 
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#HousingMarket2026 #RealEstateForecast #HousingAffordability #MarketTrends #HomebuyerUpdate

When Will Jobs and Inflation Data Return After the Shutdown Here’s What to Expect

The ongoing government shutdown has frozen nearly every major U.S. economic report, leaving the markets blind to essential data on jobs, inflation, consumer spending, and income. With Congress close to approving a temporary funding bill, operations could restart soon, but economists warn that data releases will not return immediately. 
 
Agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics will need time to bring staff back, rebuild schedules, and catch up on weeks of missed reporting. Goldman Sachs expects the BLS to post a new release calendar early next week, with the delayed October jobs report potentially arriving as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. But other critical releases, including inflation readings, retail sales, and the Fed’s preferred PCE index, will likely face delays of a week or more.
 
Even without official government data, private-sector indicators show a consistent economic picture: the labor market is cooling but not collapsing, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and economic growth is slowing from earlier highs but remains positive. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the lack of government reports is inconvenient but emphasized that alternative sources show little change in recent trends. 
 
Economists expect the October jobs report to show a loss of roughly 50,000–60,000 jobs, highlighting a softer but still stable labor market. Growth estimates also reflect a downshift, with the Atlanta Fed projecting 4% GDP for Q3 and Goldman predicting just 1.3% for Q4, putting full-year growth near 2%.
 
Once the shutdown ends, agencies will resume releasing the backlog, but the process will be gradual and spread over several weeks. Until then, markets, analysts, and the Federal Reserve must rely on private data and early economic signals to gauge the path of employment, inflation, and overall economic momentum. The upcoming releases will be closely watched as they could influence expectations for interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and the pace of economic cooling heading into 2026.
 
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#USEconomy #JobsReport #InflationUpdate #MarketNews #EconomicOutlook

U S Foreclosures Continue Gradual Climb Amid Higher Housing Costs

Foreclosure activity across the United States continued to climb in October 2025, signaling ongoing financial stress for many homeowners. According to ATTOM’s latest report, more than 36,700 properties received foreclosure filings last month — including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. That represents a 19% jump from last year and a 3% increase from 
 
September, marking the eighth straight month of year-over-year growth.
 
ATTOM CEO Rob Barber emphasized that while foreclosures are rising steadily, they remain well below historic peaks. He says the increases reflect a slow “return to normal” as homeowners face higher mortgage payments, rising insurance costs, and tighter household budgets. Nationwide, about 1 in every 3,871 homes had a foreclosure filing in October.
 
Some states are being hit far harder than others. Florida leads the nation, with one foreclosure for every 1,829 housing units. South Carolina, Illinois, Delaware, and Nevada round out the top five. Florida’s rising insurance premiums, slower home sales, and high cost of living continue to put added pressure on borrowers.
 
Foreclosure starts—the initial filings that begin the process—also climbed. Lenders started proceedings on more than 25,000 properties, up 20% annually. The highest numbers came from Florida, Texas, California, Illinois, and New York, states with large populations and diverse housing markets.
 
Despite the national rise, some major metros actually saw big improvements. Cities like Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Louisville, Washington, D.C., and Detroit recorded sharp drops in new foreclosure starts, likely due to stronger job markets or more effective loan workout programs.
 
Completed foreclosures—homes officially repossessed by banks—also increased. More than 3,800 properties became REOs in October, up 32% compared to last year. Texas, California, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois saw the most bank takeovers.
 
Overall, the trend shows a slow but steady rise in foreclosure activity. While the numbers remain manageable, the combination of higher mortgage rates, costly insurance, inflation, and stagnant wages continues to create hardship. Unless interest rates ease or incomes rise, analysts expect foreclosures to continue inching upward through early 2026.
 
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#HousingMarketUpdate #ForeclosureTrends #RealEstateNews #HomeownerStruggles #MarketWatch

Mortgage Rates Hold Near Recent Highs as Market Awaits Fresh Economic Data

Mortgage rates remain stuck near recent highs, and the housing market is feeling the pressure. As buyers, sellers, and investors watch closely, all eyes are on the next round of economic data that could shape the direction of rates in the coming weeks. In this video, we break down why mortgage rates are holding steady at these elevated levels and what key economic indicators could finally move the market.
In today’s environment, even small shifts in inflation, employment reports, consumer spending, and Federal Reserve commentary can have an immediate impact on Treasury yields — which directly influence mortgage rates. With the market on edge, understanding what’s driving rate movements is more important than ever for anyone involved in real estate or home financing.
We’ll explain:
✅ Why mortgage rates remain near recent highs despite signs of cooling inflation
✅ How bond markets are reacting to economic uncertainty and Fed policy expectations
✅ What upcoming economic releases could mean for rate relief — or further pressure
✅ How today’s high-rate environment is affecting homebuyers, sellers, and refinancing opportunities
✅ What to expect from the housing market if rates stay elevated heading into 2025
 
Mortgage affordability remains a major challenge, especially for first-time buyers facing high prices, low inventory, and tight lending conditions. Meanwhile, sellers are hesitant to list, worried about trading their low fixed-rate mortgages for costly new loans. These dynamics continue to freeze activity in many regions — making the next economic data release even more critical.
Mortgage rates are sitting close to the higher end of their recent range after a small move upward on Thursday. Rates climbed quickly after the Federal Reserve’s late October meeting, but since then, they’ve stayed in a tight window throughout November. Yesterday’s average rate was near the low end of that range, and today it shifted back toward the top.
Because the overall change is small, there’s not much deeper market activity to examine. There was no major economic data released today that pushed the bond market weaker. Instead, the slight increase appears tied to the reopening of the federal government, which has been expected to put mild upward pressure on rates.
This follows earlier warnings that markets might react with higher yields once the shutdown officially ended. That pattern is showing up now, although the movement is still limited.
Looking ahead, bigger changes in mortgage rates will depend on the economic reports that are about to return now that federal agencies are open again. These reports—especially inflation and employment data—usually have a strong influence on mortgage pricing. However, updated release dates have not yet been provided, so markets are waiting to see when the data will resume.
For now, rates remain stuck within a narrow November range, with the next meaningful shift likely to come once new government numbers begin to hit the schedule.
 
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Young Adults Struggle With Jobs and Housing as Costs Rise and Opportunities Fall

Young adults across the country are facing one of the toughest economic environments in decades. With rising living costs, limited job opportunities, and a housing market that feels increasingly out of reach, millions of people in their 20s and early 30s are finding it harder than ever to get ahead. In this video, we break down the real challenges facing today’s young adults — and why the system seems to be working against them.
From rent increases to student loan burdens to stagnant wages, the financial pressures on young people have reached a tipping point. Even with a strong overall economy, entry-level job opportunities are shrinking or paying less than what’s needed to keep up with inflation. At the same time, home prices remain elevated, mortgage rates are still high, and inventory remains tight. Together, these factors are creating a generation caught between rising costs and falling opportunities.
We’ll explore:
✅ Why young adults are struggling to enter the job market
✅ How rising inflation and living expenses are shrinking financial stability
✅ Why homeownership feels increasingly out of reach
✅ How student loans, rent prices, and everyday costs trap young workers
✅ What the future could look like if economic trends don’t improve
Housing is one of the biggest pain points. Rent prices are rising faster than incomes, especially in major cities where job opportunities are concentrated. Many young adults are spending 40–50% of their monthly earnings on housing alone — well above recommended affordability levels. This makes it nearly impossible to save for a down payment or create long-term financial stability.
Racial disparities deepen the challenge. Young Black and Asian renters are cost burdened at rates approaching two-thirds, with Hispanic young renters close behind. These burdens fall most heavily on those without family support, and the financial gap widens during college, where students often depend on loans, grants, or relatives just to meet monthly rent. Meanwhile, the public safety net provides little relief: only 9% of young renters earning under $30,000 per year receive any form of housing assistance — far below the 23% of low-income renters overall who receive help.
The combination of limited job prospects, slow wage growth, and record-high rents leaves many young adults trapped. Without stronger housing programs, expanded rental assistance, and better job opportunities tailored to early-career workers, millions risk staying stuck in unstable or shared housing arrangements well into adulthood. Experts warn that unless policymakers act, a large share of this generation could remain locked out of affordable, independent living for years to come.
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#HousingCrisis #GenZStruggles #YouthUnemployment #AffordableHousingNow #economicreality 
 
 

Best Days to Buy a Home New Data Shows When Buyers Pay the Lowest Premiums

Best Days to Buy a Home  New Data Shows When Buyers Pay the Lowest Premiums
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A new ATTOM analysis reveals that strategic timing can help homebuyers reduce costs even in today’s challenging market. After reviewing more than 52 million sales over 11 years, researchers found that November continues to offer the best overall savings, with buyers paying an average premium of just 7.3% above a home’s automated valuation model (AVM). But one date stands out more than any other: December 4, when buyers pay the lowest premium of the entire year at only 4.8%, compared to peak premiums of over 14% during the busiest spring markets. 
Several additional dates—including October 2, December 24, January 16, November 13, and October 9—also offer unusually low premiums, showing a clear pattern that late fall and early winter provide the strongest opportunities for savings as buyer activity slows and sellers become more negotiable. At the monthly level, November, October, and December consistently rank as the best nationwide, while summer months remain the most expensive due to fierce competition. Some states even deliver below-market discounts during certain months, with Michigan seeing average December prices 3.2% below AVM, followed by Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, and Minnesota with modest seasonal dips of their own.
 
 ATTOM’s data suggests that buyers heading into 2026 could gain a real advantage by focusing their home search on slower months, taking advantage of seasonal lulls, and targeting markets that historically show deeper end-of-year price breaks. With affordability still tight, even small reductions in premiums can make a meaningful difference — and timing remains one of the most effective tools buyers have to stretch their budget.
 
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Stan Middleman on AI, Mortgage Rates, and Why 2026 Could Be a Turning Point

Freedom Mortgage CEO Stan Middleman says 2025 unfolded almost exactly as expected — steady rates, predictable volume, and a “wait-and-see” environment. But heading into 2026, he believes the housing and mortgage industries are on the verge of meaningful change driven by interest rate shifts, rising unemployment, emerging AI impacts, and possible political pivots.
Middleman expects mortgage rates to trend lower next year, largely due to potential job losses tied to artificial intelligence. He points to Amazon’s large-scale layoffs as an early sign that AI-driven displacement may already be underway. If unemployment rises, rates could fall 75 to 100 basis points, and possibly more, helping push mortgage origination volume toward $2.5 trillion or even close to $3 trillion.
However, he warns that affordability likely won’t improve despite falling rates. Lower borrowing costs tend to push home prices up, and with no major increase in housing supply expected, affordability could remain tight — or even worsen. Middleman also sees 2026 as a turning point for technology in mortgage servicing. Faster data access, better customer-facing automation, and improved handling of exceptions will significantly enhance the borrower experience.
Politics may also shape next year’s lending environment. Middleman credits the current administration for deregulation that has helped lenders, but notes that control of Congress will influence whether pro-business or more restrictive policies dominate.
Looking farther ahead, he warns that liquidity risks could emerge for products tied to private-label securitization — such as non-QM loans, second mortgages, and CLOs — in 2027 and 2028. For now, the opportunity lies in preparing early, adapting to technology advancements, and taking advantage of expected volume increases.
Middleman also predicts that large, technologically advanced nonbanks will continue to gain market share as banks remain constrained by regulation. Ultimately, his message to the industry is clear: don’t wait for conditions to improve. With volume expected to rise up to 20% next year, lenders who act now will be best positioned to benefit.
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