The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

New Home Listings Move Closer to Pre Pandemic Levels as Inventory Slowly Recovers

The latest data from First American shows that the U.S. housing market is slowly working its way back toward normal, even as sales remain stuck at a subdued pace. Existing-home sales continue to hover around a 4-million-per-year rhythm, a level far below the peaks of the pandemic boom and well under pre-2020 averages. Buyers remain active, but affordability challenges, high prices, and elevated mortgage rates are still holding back the number of completed transactions. Even so, one positive trend is becoming clearer: new listings are gradually returning, giving buyers more fresh options than they’ve seen in several years.
 
This improvement is important because the 2018–2019 period represents one of the last stable benchmarks before the pandemic reshaped housing dynamics. At that time, supply, demand, and mortgage rates were more closely aligned. By comparing today’s new listing counts against those earlier years, analysts can better understand how far the market has progressed after several years of extreme volatility.
 
Across the country, the rise in new listings is helping support a slight pickup in sales. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, noted, when more owners choose to list their homes, it creates more opportunities for buyers and helps the market move toward better balance. To get a clearer picture of where the market stands, First American evaluated October 2025 sales and new listings across 75 major metros and compared them with each area’s own 2018–2019 averages. Instead of looking only at total inventory—which can rise simply because homes sit longer—this method focuses on the number of fresh listings coming onto the market, giving a more accurate sense of new supply.
 
The results show a wide range of market conditions. Some metros, including Pittsburgh, Knoxville, and Virginia Beach, are closest to their pre-pandemic norms for both sales and new listings. These pace-setter markets tend to be in more affordable regions of the country and appear to be leading the overall normalization trend. In other areas—especially across the Northeast and Midwest—demand is healthier than supply, meaning sales are nearer to normal levels than listings. Markets like Boston and Detroit fall into this category and could quickly shift if more homeowners decide to list.
 
In contrast, many southern metros are seeing more normal levels of new listings, but buyer demand hasn’t fully caught up. Areas like San Antonio and Tampa have improved supply but still face affordability challenges and economic factors that slow buyer activity. Meanwhile, much of the West remains stuck in neutral, with both sales and listings lagging well behind pre-pandemic norms. Metros such as Los Angeles and Portland continue to face affordability pressures, weaker population growth, and slower sales momentum.
 
Despite these regional differences, the nationwide improvement in new listings remains a positive sign. As supply gradually recovers, it helps reduce some of the pressure buyers have faced over the past three years. First American’s Existing-Home Sales Outlook for October reflects this shift, projecting a 0.3% month-over-month increase in sales and a 1.1% annual increase. A resilient economy, a slow easing of the rate-lock effect, and a small boost in purchasing power are all contributing to the modest rise.
 
While the housing market still faces significant affordability barriers and sales remain far below historic averages, the steady increase in new listings provides a foundation for future stability. If supply continues climbing through 2026—and mortgage rates gradually decline—the market could slowly move toward a healthier balance, offering more opportunities for both buyers and sellers after several years of severe constraint.
 
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#HousingMarket2025 #RealEstateUpdate #HomeInventory #MortgageTrends #MarketRecovery

Mortgage Originations Slip in Q3 as Homebuyers Pull Back, But Refis and HELOCs Gain Ground

U.S. mortgage activity slowed slightly in the third quarter of 2025, but the overall picture remains one of quiet stability rather than a sharp downturn. ATTOM’s latest mortgage origination report shows the market softening at the surface while underlying segments—especially refinancing and home-equity borrowing—continue to grow. The result is a mixed but steady environment as the industry transitions into the final quarter of the year.
 
A total of 1.77 million mortgages were originated in Q3, down 1.6% from the previous quarter but still nearly 2% higher than last year. ATTOM CEO Rob Barber described the period as cautious but stable, noting that homeowners are increasingly willing to refinance or tap equity even as aspiring buyers continue to run into affordability barriers. Loan volume reached $600.4 billion, just slightly below Q2’s level but comfortably above 2024 totals.
 
The biggest drag on activity came from purchase loans, which fell almost 5% from Q2 and more than 6% year over year. That reflects the reality buyers are facing: high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and limited inventory in many regions. Major metros like Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas saw some of the steepest drops in purchase demand, underscoring how stretched buyers are in fast-growing Sunbelt markets. But not all markets slowed. Cities such as Buffalo, New York, Cleveland, Rochester, and Philadelphia posted gains, helped by more stable pricing and slightly improved inventory.
 
Refinancing continued to move in the opposite direction. Even with modest rate cuts, refi activity increased for the fourth straight quarter. Homeowners are taking advantage of any improvement in rates to secure better terms, pushing refinance originations up 12% from last year. Cities like Las Vegas, New Orleans, Phoenix, and Honolulu posted some of the strongest gains.
 
HELOC borrowing remains one of the brightest spots in mortgage lending. Rising home values and tighter budgets have pushed more owners to tap home equity for renovations, debt consolidation, or major expenses. HELOC activity rose nearly 3% from Q2 and more than 4.5% annually, with strong growth in metros like Portland, Virginia Beach, Richmond, Fresno, and Birmingham. These loans now make up nearly one in five mortgage originations—one of the highest shares in years.
 
Government-backed and construction lending edged lower, reflecting softer homebuying and a cooling pace of new-home building. FHA and VA loans both ticked down, and construction loans declined to just over 1% of all originations.
 
Taken together, the Q3 data shows a market that is stable but far from surging. Buyers remain constrained by affordability, keeping purchase activity muted, while homeowners continue to drive lending through refinances and home-equity borrowing. As Q4 begins, the mortgage landscape looks steady and balanced, but momentum will depend on whether affordability improves and rates continue to ease heading into 2026.
 
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#HousingMarket2026 #RealEstateTrends #HomeAffordability #MortgageRates #MarketOutlook

Housing Market Outlook 2026 What to Expect as Affordability Slowly Improves

As the industry looks toward 2026, First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming offers a clear view of what will shape the housing market next year: gradually improving affordability, slowing price growth, and a slow but steady weakening of the rate lock-in effect. Fleming’s outlook emphasizes that the recovery won’t be driven by dramatic interest rate cuts but by steady economic fundamentals and the life events that consistently bring people into the market.
 
Affordability is expected to improve modestly as incomes continue rising and home price growth cools, particularly in markets where values surged the fastest during the pandemic. Some of the over-heated Sunbelt and West Coast markets—like parts of Florida, Texas, and California—are already seeing small price corrections. Fleming calls these shifts normal adjustments rather than signs of a downturn, noting that home values remain far above pre-2020 levels. He says the narrowing gap between what buyers earn and what homes cost will play a larger role in easing affordability than rate cuts alone.
 
A major theme in Fleming’s outlook is that mortgage rates won’t fall far enough to break the lock-in effect that kept millions of homeowners frozen in place. While rate lock-in will still limit inventory in 2026, its influence is slowly fading as more homeowners reach life stages that require a move—marriages, job changes, expanding families, and downsizing. According to Fleming, these life events drive the housing market far more reliably than Fed policy, and they will continue pulling people back into the market even if rates remain in the low-6% range.
 
He also points to negative equity as the key risk to watch. The borrowers most vulnerable are those who bought near the peak with small down payments and didn’t benefit from the rapid price gains of 2020–2022. While today’s equity levels remain strong overall, these pockets of risk could become trouble spots if the economy slows or financial stress rises.
 
When it comes to new forms of homeownership—like shared equity models, co-buying, and fractional ownership—Fleming sees more interest but limited overall impact. These alternatives will help some first-time buyers but won’t transform the market.
 
The biggest threat going into 2026 remains a renewed hit to affordability. That could come from another spike in rates or a reacceleration in home prices. But the biggest upside is the possibility of stronger income growth, potentially supported by productivity gains from new AI and workplace technologies. If wages rise faster than expected, the path to better affordability could accelerate—a shift that would bring balance to the housing market faster than rate cuts alone.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/housing-market-outlook-2026-what-to-expect-as-affordability-slowly-improves/
#HousingMarket2026 #RealEstateTrends #HomeAffordability #MortgageRates #MarketOutlook

Mortgage Rates Stay Flat as Jobs Report Sparks a Bond Market Rebound

Mortgage rates ended up holding steady on Thursday, but only because the bond market delivered a perfectly timed rebound at the last possible moment. Heading into the morning, most lenders were prepared to raise rates. Wednesday afternoon brought enough weakness in bond markets that lenders would normally have issued higher pricing, but because the decline happened late in the day, most lenders avoided making adjustments. That meant they entered Thursday with rate sheets that no longer matched the actual state of the bond market, almost guaranteeing rate increases once the morning opened.
 
Everything changed when the September jobs report was released. Bonds immediately strengthened, and the rebound was almost identical in size to the losses seen the day before. This sharp, early rally effectively erased Wednesday’s weakness and brought bond prices back to the same levels lenders based their rate sheets on. Because of that, lenders no longer needed to raise rates—they were already aligned with the new market environment.
 
The movement shows just how sensitive mortgage rates are to real-time shifts in bond trading. Even though the market has been volatile, the jobs-report rally neutralized the prior declines so precisely that lenders were able to keep pricing unchanged. The result was a surprisingly steady day for mortgage rates, despite the choppiness behind the scenes. It was a rare instance where timing—down to the hour—made all the difference for borrowers.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/mortgage-rates-stay-flat-as-jobs-report-sparks-a-bond-market-rebound/
#MortgageRates #BondMarket #HousingMarketUpdate #InterestRates #EconomicNews

U S Rents Keep Falling as Market Patterns Shift and Affordability Improves

The U.S. rental market continued its gradual cooling in October, marking the 27th straight month of year-over-year declines. The median asking rent across the 50 largest metro areas slipped to $1,696, falling both from last month and from a year earlier. Even with this consistent softening, the overall pullback from pandemic-era highs remains modest, with rents still nearly 17% above 2019 levels. Studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units all posted annual declines, but each unit type remains significantly more expensive than before the pandemic, showing how the long-term affordability challenge persists even while short-term relief continues.
 
Despite these cooling trends, renters are increasingly active again, encouraged by gradually improving affordability. Realtor.com’s cross-market search data shows that while national rents have softened, the forces shaping demand vary dramatically across metros. Markets dominated by locals, such as New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, remain more insulated and stable. New York, where nearly three-quarters of rental traffic comes from local residents, continues to see rent growth because strong rent regulations, limited supply, and high home prices keep people renting longer. Los Angeles follows a similar pattern for many of the same reasons.
 
On the other hand, cities like Raleigh, Richmond, Nashville, Hartford, and Providence have seen a powerful swing toward out-of-market renters. These metros attract newcomers with lower costs of living, expanding job markets, and appeal to remote workers and young professionals. Over the last six years, twenty major metros shifted from being local-driven to newcomer-driven, a reflection of the massive reshuffling brought on by remote work, affordability pressures, and shifting lifestyle preferences—while no city has moved in the opposite direction.
 
Even though rents remain well above pre-pandemic levels, the recent steady declines show a market adjusting to increased supply and slower demand. Seasonal cooling is part of the trend, but broader economic conditions—including constrained homebuying affordability—are helping stabilize rent prices. The rental market is now shaped by a mix of easing rent growth, shifting migration patterns, and a growing divide between metros supported by loyal local renters and those transformed by waves of newcomers. This dynamic will continue to shape the rental landscape heading into 2026.
 
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#RentalMarket #HousingTrends #RentPrices #RealEstateUpdate #AffordableHousing

Housing Market Outlook 2026 Key Risks, Policy Shifts, and the Forces Shaping What Comes Next

Existing-home sales in the U.S. ticked higher in October despite the government shutdown creating uncertainty across the economy. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales rose 1.2% from September, marking the second straight monthly increase and showing that buyers responded quickly to slightly lower mortgage rates. Activity strengthened in the Midwest and South, held steady in the Northeast, and slipped in the West, where high prices and tight supply continue to slow demand. On a year-over-year basis, most regions improved except the West, which remains the most challenged market.
 
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said falling rent growth and easing rates are working together to cool inflation and give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to continue lowering interest rates. He noted that this environment helped draw more buyers back into the market during October. The month ended with a median home price of $415,200—up a modest 2.1% from last year—and inventory that rose to 4.4 months, a slight improvement compared with 2024. Even so, affordability remains strained, especially for first-time buyers, and homes are taking longer to sell than they did during the pandemic boom.
 
Economists say the recent improvement is positive but emphasize that the market is still far from normal levels. Sales are holding near a 4.1-million annual pace, which is well below both the pre-pandemic average and the much stronger volumes seen in 2021. Analysts such as Lisa Sturtevant and Jeff Ostrowski warn that high prices, elevated rates, and broader economic concerns continue to limit how quickly the market can recover. While lower mortgage rates may boost demand in 2026, many buyers remain cautious about their finances, and sellers are still holding firm on pricing. October’s gains show progress, but the market remains in a slow, uneven recovery that will likely take time to fully rebound.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/housing-market-outlook-2026-key-risks-policy-shifts/
#HousingMarket #ExistingHomeSales #RealEstateUpdate #MortgageRates #HousingAffordability

Existing Home Sales Rise in October as Lower Rates Pull Buyers Back

Existing-home sales in the U.S. ticked higher in October despite the government shutdown creating uncertainty across the economy. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales rose 1.2% from September, marking the second straight monthly increase and showing that buyers responded quickly to slightly lower mortgage rates. Activity strengthened in the Midwest and South, held steady in the Northeast, and slipped in the West, where high prices and tight supply continue to slow demand. On a year-over-year basis, most regions improved except the West, which remains the most challenged market.
 
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said falling rent growth and easing rates are working together to cool inflation and give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to continue lowering interest rates. He noted that this environment helped draw more buyers back into the market during October. The month ended with a median home price of $415,200—up a modest 2.1% from last year—and inventory that rose to 4.4 months, a slight improvement compared with 2024. Even so, affordability remains strained, especially for first-time buyers, and homes are taking longer to sell than they did during the pandemic boom.
 
Economists say the recent improvement is positive but emphasize that the market is still far from normal levels. Sales are holding near a 4.1-million annual pace, which is well below both the pre-pandemic average and the much stronger volumes seen in 2021. Analysts such as Lisa Sturtevant and Jeff Ostrowski warn that high prices, elevated rates, and broader economic concerns continue to limit how quickly the market can recover. While lower mortgage rates may boost demand in 2026, many buyers remain cautious about their finances, and sellers are still holding firm on pricing. October’s gains show progress, but the market remains in a slow, uneven recovery that will likely take time to fully rebound.
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/existing-home-sales-rise-in-october-as-buyers-respond-to-lower-rates/
#HousingMarket #ExistingHomeSales #RealEstateUpdate #MortgageRates #HousingAffordability

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, But Afternoon Bond Weakness Signals Possible Increase

Mortgage rates looked steady on Wednesday, even showing a very small dip compared to the previous day, but that stability is misleading. The only reason rates appeared flat is because most lenders locked in their daily pricing before the bond market weakened late in the afternoon. When the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest meeting, bonds slipped into negative territory—a move that normally pushes mortgage rates higher. Since the sell-off happened after lenders published their rate sheets, today’s numbers don’t reflect the true pressure building in the market. That means Thursday’s rates will almost certainly adjust unless something dramatic shifts overnight.
 
The real turning point arrives Thursday morning with the long-delayed September jobs report. Because lenders typically finalize rate sheets between 9:30 and 10:30 a.m. ET, the 8:30 a.m. release guarantees immediate and potentially sharp market reaction. A stronger-than-expected jobs report would likely send bond yields higher and push mortgage rates noticeably upward. On the other hand, if the report shows weakening labor conditions, it could help offset Wednesday afternoon’s bond losses and keep rates stable—or even nudge them a little lower.
 
In short, while today’s rates appear calm on the surface, the bond market is already signaling upward pressure. With a major employment report hitting tomorrow morning, borrowers and lenders should prepare for a volatile day. The next move in mortgage rates now depends almost entirely on where the jobs data lands.
 
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#MortgageRates #HousingMarketUpdate #BondMarket #InterestRateWatch #RealEstateTrends

Retirement Savings Hit New Highs in 2025 as 401k and IRA Balances Grow

Retirement savings made a strong comeback in the third quarter of 2025, with new data from Fidelity Investments showing the highest account balances ever recorded. After a rocky start to the year fueled by market volatility and tariff-related uncertainty, most savers saw their portfolios rebound sharply as the stock market strengthened through late summer. The average 401(k) balance climbed to an all-time high of $144,400, up 9% from last year, while average IRA balances rose to nearly $138,000 — a 7% annual gain. These increases reflect both consistent contributions from workers and the solid performance of major market indexes, which helped restore confidence after earlier declines.
 
Younger workers played a big role in this improvement, especially through growing use of Roth accounts. Fidelity reported a significant rise in participation in Roth 401(k)s and Roth IRAs, driven largely by Gen Z and younger millennials. With higher 2026 contribution limits and the appeal of tax-free withdrawals in retirement, Roth options are becoming an essential part of long-term planning for many young adults. Fidelity executives say this trend shows deeper financial literacy and stronger awareness of tax strategy among the newest generation of savers.
 
The number of retirement “millionaires” also reached a record high. More than 654,000 Americans now have at least $1 million saved in a 401(k), and more than 559,000 have reached millionaire status through IRAs. These jumps—double-digit increases in just one quarter—highlight how long-term contributions and market rebounds can dramatically accelerate retirement growth, especially for those who stay invested through volatility.
 
Fidelity emphasized that saver discipline played a major role in these gains. Even when markets dipped early in 2025, most workers continued contributing steadily rather than cutting back. The average combined contribution rate held at 14.2%, just shy of Fidelity’s recommended 15% target. This steady behavior protected long-term savings from short-term swings and positioned accounts to benefit from the market’s recovery.
 
Stock performance helped fuel the record-breaking numbers. By the end of September, the Dow was up 9% for the year, the S&P 500 was up 14%, and the Nasdaq gained 17%. These strong results boosted balances across all age groups and helped many savers end the year in a far stronger position than they started.
 
Overall, the report paints a positive picture of retirement readiness heading into 2026. Despite inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, Americans—especially younger generations—are saving more consistently, taking advantage of Roth options, and staying invested even when markets turn volatile. With strong market momentum and steady contribution habits, retirement savers closed the third quarter of 2025 on a high note.
 
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#RetirementSavings #FinancialWellness #MarketRecovery #401kGrowth #LongTermInvesting

More Low Income Americans Struggle as Paycheck to Paycheck Living Grows

A growing number of Americans—especially those with lower incomes—are finding it harder to stay financially stable as everyday costs continue to rise faster than their wages. A new report from the Bank of America Institute shows that nearly one-third of lower-income households are now living paycheck to paycheck, spending almost all of their monthly income on basic essentials like rent, groceries, utilities, gas, and internet service. This share has slowly climbed over the past two years, showing that financial strain is deepening even as the economy cools. Across all income levels, almost one in four households are in the same situation, highlighting how widespread financial pressure has become.
 
Inflation is one of the biggest drivers behind this trend. Although price growth has slowed compared to the extreme levels seen in 2022, inflation has recently ticked back up to about 3%—still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. What makes the situation worse is that wages for low-income workers are barely rising. In October, their earnings increased only 1% from a year earlier, while the cost of living rose three times as fast. That imbalance means more people are struggling to keep up, and even small increases in rent, food, or transportation can force households into difficult trade-offs.
 
Economists point out that wage growth has slowed because the labor market has cooled. During the early pandemic recovery, companies were desperate for workers and paid more to attract and retain staff. But as hiring slowed and fewer people switched jobs in 2023 and 2024, wage gains softened. This slowdown disproportionately affects lower-income workers, while higher-income households, especially higher-earning millennials, have continued to see stronger wage growth. That widening gap underscores a growing divide in the economy, where some groups are financially stable while others are falling behind.
 
Higher-income households remain relatively insulated from rising prices because their wages are still growing faster than inflation. But for families with limited earnings, even a small rise in the cost of living can push them into financial instability. The Bank of America Institute warns that this divide—often called a “K-shaped economy”—is becoming more pronounced. Without faster wage growth or a clearer slowdown in inflation, more households may find themselves living paycheck to paycheck as 2026 approaches.
 
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#EconomyUpdate #CostOfLiving #InflationImpact #FinancialStrain #AmericaPaycheckToPaycheck