The Nadlan Group Real Estate Podcast

Small Investors Take the Lead as Investor Purchases Hold Steady in 2025

Investor activity in the housing market stayed surprisingly steady throughout the first half of 2025, even as overall home sales declined. New data from Realtor.com shows that investors bought about 11% of all homes sold in Q2—almost identical to last year. While total home sales fell around 4%, investor purchases slipped only 3%, giving investors a slightly larger share of the market at a time when many traditional buyers have stepped back.
 
On the selling side, investors also pulled back less than the broader market. They sold roughly 216,000 properties in the first six months of 2025, just 4% below last year’s pace. Because they purchased more homes than they sold—adding a net 21,000 homes in Q2 alone—investors show continued confidence in both rental demand and long-term returns heading into 2026.
 
One of the biggest shifts this year is who is doing the buying. Small-scale, local investors now dominate the market, accounting for 63% of all investor purchases—the highest level in nearly two decades. Meanwhile, large institutional buyers have been steadily retreating, making up only about 20% of investor activity. This transition signals that local landlords—not big corporations—are now driving most investor competition for affordable homes.
 
Investor demand is strongest in lower-cost states, where starter homes are still attainable and rental demand remains solid. States like Missouri, Mississippi, and Nevada lead the nation in investor share, while metros including Memphis, St. Louis, and Oklahoma City show the highest concentrations of investor purchases. In many Midwest cities—such as Detroit, Cleveland, and Milwaukee—investors are targeting the lowest-priced homes on the market, seeking reliable cash flow at bargain entry prices.
 
By contrast, investors in high-cost cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are paying higher prices and often betting on long-term appreciation rather than rental income alone. Nationally, the typical investor home costs about $287,000—roughly $80,000 less than the U.S. median sale price—putting investors in direct competition with first-time buyers for entry-level homes.
 
Looking ahead to 2026, elevated mortgage rates and strong rental demand suggest investor activity—especially from small, local buyers—will remain steady. But this also means continued competition for affordable homes. Unless inventory improves or affordability increases, first-time buyers will keep facing pressure in the price ranges investors target most. The battle for starter homes isn’t slowing down—and for many Americans entering the market, 2026 may be another challenging year.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/housing-market-outlook-2026-a-slow-reset-rising-risks-and-signs-of-future-recovery/
#HousingMarket2026 #RealEstateInvestors #FirstTimeBuyers #MarketTrends #RentalDemand

Housing Market Outlook 2026 A Slow Reset, Rising Risks, and Signs of Future Recovery

As 2026 approaches, the housing market remains in the middle of what Rick Sharga calls a five-year “reset,” rather than a rapid correction or rebound. After prices soared more than 40% during the pandemic and mortgage rates doubled, affordability hit the worst levels in decades. This forced existing-home sales to fall from over 6 million in 2021 to about 4 million for the last two years — a level Sharga believes will persist through most of 2026. Inventory is building slowly, days on market are rising, and price growth has cooled dramatically, with some markets even seeing small declines as wages slowly catch up to rapid pandemic-era price jumps.
 
Sharga expects sales to improve slightly next year but remain historically weak without a major shift in rates or economic sentiment. Inventory gains should continue as sales stay soft and more older homeowners downsize, but affordability pressures will still hold back demand, especially for first-time buyers. Even with these challenges, mortgage delinquencies remain near record lows thanks to strong borrower credit profiles, low unemployment, and homeowners holding trillions in equity. Still, warning signs are emerging: total consumer debt is at an all-time high, serious delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans exceed pre-COVID levels, homeowners’ insurance premiums and property taxes are climbing rapidly, and FHA loans now make up more than half of all seriously delinquent mortgages. Sharga expects foreclosures to rise modestly in 2026, especially within the FHA segment, but not at levels that threaten overall housing stability.
 
The biggest factor shaping the 2026 outlook is the job market, which is experiencing an unusual slowdown — hiring is cooling, but layoffs remain low. Strong employment usually fuels home buying by boosting wages and confidence; a weaker labor market would do the opposite. Demographics should provide long-term demand support, with millions of millennials hitting peak homebuying age but temporarily sidelined by affordability barriers. These buyers represent a wave of pent-up demand that could return once conditions ease.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/housing-market-outlook-2026-a-slow-reset-rising-risks-and-signs-of-future-recovery/
#HousingMarket2026 #RealEstateTrends #MortgageInsights #HomebuyerUpdate #EconomicOutlook

Fed Officials Signal Openness to December Rate Cut as Odds Jump Higher

Momentum is building toward a Federal Reserve rate cut in December after two of the central bank’s most influential voices signaled support for lowering rates. New York Fed President John Williams—one of Chair Jerome Powell’s closest policy partners and a permanent voter on the FOMC—hinted that the current policy stance may not need to remain this tight for much longer. Williams said there is “room for a further adjustment in the near term,” a clear message that another rate cut is very much on the table.
 
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the same sentiment in a separate interview with the Wall Street Journal, saying she supports cutting rates at the upcoming December 10 meeting. Daly does not vote this year, but she has long aligned with Powell’s policy approach, adding weight to the idea that leadership may be building a broader consensus around easing.
 
Markets reacted quickly. The probability of a December rate cut jumped to roughly 85%, up from around 50% just days before. Investors immediately moved into Treasuries, pushing down yields and strengthening expectations that borrowing costs—especially for mortgages—may hold steady or move slightly lower into the new year.
 
Not everyone at the Fed is convinced, however. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Jeff Schmid have voiced caution, warning that inflation could still reaccelerate. Their concerns highlight the internal divide: some policymakers see slower hiring and cooling price pressures as enough reason to cut, while others think more patience is needed to ensure inflation continues on a steady downward path.
 
This upcoming meeting carries outsized importance because the Fed will be making a major decision without fresh inflation data. The government shutdown wiped out the October CPI report, leaving policymakers with fewer tools than normal to assess real-time conditions. That makes comments from Fed leaders and market reactions even more influential than usual.
 
For mortgage rates, a December cut would help keep yields from climbing and could prevent the housing market from losing momentum during a fragile stretch. Rates recently touched their lowest point in a year, and with demand still sensitive to even small shifts, the Fed’s next move could determine how stable borrowing costs remain through the end of 2025.
 
Economists warn that the outlook can still change quickly. Any unexpected jump in inflation, a rebound in job growth, or stronger opposition from additional Fed officials could weaken the case for a cut. But for now, the tone inside the central bank is leaning noticeably toward easing, and the market has already priced in most of that expectation.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/fed-officials-signal-openness-to-december-rate-cut-as-odds-jump-higher/
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #EconomicUpdate

Home Prices Cool and New Conforming Loan Limit Climbs to $832,750 for 2026

Fresh data from both the FHFA Home Price Index and the S&P/Case-Shiller Index shows a clear shift in the housing market: home prices are still rising, but the pace of growth is slowing more noticeably month after month. Elevated mortgage rates continue to cool demand, and affordability pressures are now becoming strong enough to slow appreciation to its lowest level in more than a decade.
 
The FHFA reported that home prices were up just 1.7% year-over-year in September — the weakest growth since 2012. Month over month, prices were completely flat, with September coming in at 0.0%. The Case-Shiller Index told a similar story, rising 1.4% annually and only 0.1% monthly on a seasonally adjusted basis. For the first time in many years, home-price growth is actually trailing inflation, meaning real affordability continues to tighten.
 
Even with the cooling momentum, prices remain high enough to push conforming loan limits higher in 2026. The FHFA announced that the baseline limit will rise to $832,750, while high-cost areas will see limits up to $1,249,125. This expansion keeps more buyers eligible for conforming loans, which typically offer lower rates and easier qualification — a meaningful benefit in a high-rate environment.
 
Heading into 2026, the data sends a consistent message: home-price growth is slowing, monthly gains are flattening, and demand remains soft under the weight of higher borrowing costs. Still, the market is not reversing — it is stabilizing. Prices remain elevated, but the environment is cooler, steadier, and more balanced than the rapid swings of the past few years.
 
Overall, buyers and sellers should expect a cautious but stable market in early 2026, shaped by high rates, slow appreciation, and a continued push toward affordability.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/home-prices-cool-and-new-conforming-loan-limit-climbs-to-832750-for-2026/
#HousingMarket #HomePrices #RealEstateTrends #MortgageNews #2026Outlook

Cities Where First Time Buyers Beat Investors — And Where Investors Still Win

The Federal Reserve is heading into its December 10 rate decision facing one of the most complicated economic environments in years. The U.S. economy is showing strong overall growth, but the labor market is clearly losing momentum — creating a difficult split for policymakers.
 
Hiring has slowed sharply in 2025 as companies react cautiously to President Trump’s new economic policies. Job losses in both June and August and a soft three-month hiring average of just 62,000 show the cooling trend. Yet at the same time, productivity is rising and broader economic growth remains solid. This imbalance — strong GDP but weak hiring — makes it harder for the Fed to decide whether policy should remain restrictive or begin easing.
 
The release of the long-delayed September jobs report only added more confusion. The economy added 119,000 jobs, more than double expectations, but prior months were revised lower and unemployment ticked up. Wall Street economists say these mixed signals could lead to a divided vote inside the Fed, with some officials pushing to hold rates steady and others supporting another cut.A new analysis from Neighbors Bank reveals a sharp divide across U.S. cities when it comes to who’s winning the competition for starter homes — first-time buyers or real estate investors. Nationally, first-time buyers purchased about 69% of entry-level homes last year, but the numbers look very different depending on local rules, especially around short-term rentals.
 
Denver stands out as one of the strongest markets for first-time buyers. Strict regulations limit short-term rentals to primary residences, reducing investor profits and keeping bidding pressure lower. Because of this, 84% of Denver’s starter-home purchases last year went to first-time buyers — even though home prices average around $495,000.
 
Miami is the complete opposite. Florida law prevents cities from restricting short-term rentals, allowing investors to freely convert homes into vacation rentals. That freedom gives investors a big advantage, and the results show it: 57% of Miami’s starter-home sales went to investors, with first-time buyers capturing just 43%, despite similar price levels to Denver.
 
Other cities where first-time buyers dominate include Seattle and Los Angeles, where strict STR limits and policies favoring owner-occupants make it harder for investors to compete. Both metros saw 81% of starter homes go to first-time buyers. Meanwhile, cities like Indianapolis and Dayton offer affordability and strong local programs that help owner-occupants purchase renovated or previously vacant properties — keeping investors at bay.
 
The biggest takeaway from the study is that home prices alone don’t determine who wins. Policy matters just as much, and sometimes even more. Two cities with nearly identical price points can produce completely different outcomes simply based on how they regulate short-term rentals or prioritize owner-occupants.
 
As the housing market approaches 2026, many first-time buyers are looking for metros where they stand a fair chance — not markets where investors consistently win. And for policymakers, the findings offer important lessons on how regulations can directly shape affordability and access for younger and first-time buyers trying to enter the market.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/cities-where-first-time-buyers-beat-investors-and-where-investors-still-win/
#HousingMarket #FirstTimeHomebuyers #RealEstateInvesting #AffordableHousing #ShortTermRentals

Gen Z and Millennials Step Forward in Homeownership as Older Generations Hold Their Lead

The Federal Reserve is heading into its December 10 rate decision facing one of the most complicated economic environments in years. The U.S. economy is showing strong overall growth, but the labor market is clearly losing momentum — creating a difficult split for policymakers.
 
Hiring has slowed sharply in 2025 as companies react cautiously to President Trump’s new economic policies. Job losses in both June and August and a soft three-month hiring average of just 62,000 show the cooling trend. Yet at the same time, productivity is rising and broader economic growth remains solid. This imbalance — strong GDP but weak hiring — makes it harder for the Fed to decide whether policy should remain restrictive or begin easing.
 
The release of the long-delayed September jobs report only added more confusion. The economy added 119,000 jobs, more than double expectations, but prior months were revised lower and unemployment ticked up. Wall Street economists say these mixed signals could lead to a divided vote inside the Fed, with some officials pushing to hold rates steady and others supporting another cut.
 
New York Fed President John Williams signaled the central bank may still move toward a rate reduction, saying policy is only “modestly restrictive” and that there is “room for a further adjustment soon.” But other policymakers worry inflation progress is still fragile.
 
Meanwhile, companies continue investing heavily in AI, automation, and software — spending levels now similar to the dot-com era. This investment supports long-term growth but often reduces hiring needs in the short term. Economists warn the Fed may soon have to navigate a “jobless expansion,” where the economy grows but job creation remains weak.
 
Adding to the uncertainty are ongoing effects from Trump’s immigration and trade policy shifts, which have complicated hiring decisions and labor supply for many businesses.
 
Looking ahead, the Fed still anticipates more rate cuts through 2026 — but the pace will depend on how quickly the labor market softens, how inflation behaves, and how businesses react to economic and policy uncertainty. For now, the December meeting is shaping up to be one of the closest and most contentious in years.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/gen-z-and-millennials-step-forward-in-homeownership-as-older-generations-hold-their-lead/
#FederalReserve #JobsReport #USEconomy #InterestRates #LaborMarket

Slowing Job Growth Leaves Fed Split Ahead of December Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve is heading into its December 10 rate decision facing one of the most complicated economic environments in years. The U.S. economy is showing strong overall growth, but the labor market is clearly losing momentum — creating a difficult split for policymakers.
 
Hiring has slowed sharply in 2025 as companies react cautiously to President Trump’s new economic policies. Job losses in both June and August and a soft three-month hiring average of just 62,000 show the cooling trend. Yet at the same time, productivity is rising and broader economic growth remains solid. This imbalance — strong GDP but weak hiring — makes it harder for the Fed to decide whether policy should remain restrictive or begin easing.
 
The release of the long-delayed September jobs report only added more confusion. The economy added 119,000 jobs, more than double expectations, but prior months were revised lower and unemployment ticked up. Wall Street economists say these mixed signals could lead to a divided vote inside the Fed, with some officials pushing to hold rates steady and others supporting another cut.
 
New York Fed President John Williams signaled the central bank may still move toward a rate reduction, saying policy is only “modestly restrictive” and that there is “room for a further adjustment soon.” But other policymakers worry inflation progress is still fragile.
 
Meanwhile, companies continue investing heavily in AI, automation, and software — spending levels now similar to the dot-com era. This investment supports long-term growth but often reduces hiring needs in the short term. Economists warn the Fed may soon have to navigate a “jobless expansion,” where the economy grows but job creation remains weak.
 
Adding to the uncertainty are ongoing effects from Trump’s immigration and trade policy shifts, which have complicated hiring decisions and labor supply for many businesses.
 
Looking ahead, the Fed still anticipates more rate cuts through 2026 — but the pace will depend on how quickly the labor market softens, how inflation behaves, and how businesses react to economic and policy uncertainty. For now, the December meeting is shaping up to be one of the closest and most contentious in years.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
https://nadlancapitalgroup.com
 
Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/slowing-labor-market-leaves-fed-divided-ahead-of-december-rate-decision/
#FederalReserve #JobsReport #USEconomy #InterestRates #LaborMarket

Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Holiday Shortened Week Begins

Mortgage rates kicked off Thanksgiving week with a small but welcome drop, easing back from the upper end of their recent range after last week’s gradual climb. Monday’s improvement came as the bond market strengthened throughout the day, giving lenders room to lower rates slightly and keep them locked inside the narrow band they’ve held since late October.
 
However, the calm start doesn’t mean the rest of the week will be quiet. Holiday weeks often bring strange market moves because fewer traders are active, which means even small headlines can cause outsized swings. That risk is higher this year because several key economic reports—backlogged during the government shutdown—are set to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday. Any surprises in those numbers could quickly jolt bond markets and, with them, mortgage rates. For now, borrowers are seeing slightly better pricing, but the next few days could be bumpy.
 
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/mortgage-rates-dip-slightly-as-holiday-week-begins/
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #ThanksgivingWeek #InterestRates #BondMarket

More Sellers Pull Listings as Housing Market Softens in Late 2025

A growing share of homeowners are stepping out of the housing market as falling demand, slower price growth, and rising economic concerns make selling more challenging. According to new Redfin data, nearly 85,000 sellers pulled their listings in September—up 28% from last year and the highest level for any September in eight years. The shift shows how quickly buyer interest has cooled. Nearly 70% of homes listed in September were still sitting on the market after 60 days, a sharp change from the fast-paced market of recent years. With fewer showings, slower offers, and shrinking buyer competition, many sellers—especially those who purchased recently—are choosing to wait rather than accept a lower price.
 
Home-price growth is losing steam as well. The Case-Shiller Index shows prices were only up 1.3% year over year in September, slightly weaker than August. While values remain higher than a year ago, the slowdown is enough to make homeowners nervous about listing. Redfin reports that 15% of delisted homes were at risk of selling at a loss, the highest share in five years. For many of those owners, pausing and hoping for better conditions later feels safer than selling into today’s softer market.
 
For sellers who choose to stay listed, price cuts are becoming increasingly common. Zillow’s data shows that the typical home saw around $25,000 in total price reductions in October, matching the largest cumulative discount the platform has ever tracked. Initial cuts are averaging about $10,000, but more sellers are opting for repeat reductions as properties sit longer and buyers grow more price-sensitive. Even though the total number of homes for sale is about 15% higher than last year, many of those listings are inflating inventory on paper only—because delisted homes and slow-moving properties make it appear that inventory is stronger than it actually is.
 
Seasonal trends are also adding downward pressure. As the market moves into the slowest time of year, many sellers who remove listings will wait until spring before trying again. Buyer sentiment, which briefly improved when mortgage rates dipped in late summer, has cooled again as rates increased in November and economic uncertainty grows. Pending sales did rise 1.9% from September to October, but activity was flat year over year, showing little real momentum.
 
As sellers retreat and buyers hesitate, the market is heading into winter with shrinking inventory, softer demand, and more uncertainty than usual—setting the stage for a slower, more cautious start to 2026.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/sellers-remove-listings-at-fastest-pace-in-nearly-10-years-as-market-cools/
#HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #HomeSellers #InventoryDecline #MarketUpdate

Fed Won’t Receive Critical Inflation Data Before December Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve is heading into its most important rate meeting of the year without one of the key pieces of data it relies on. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has officially canceled the October Consumer Price Index report, saying the government shutdown prevented them from gathering essential information through in-person visits and phone surveys. Because these data collection methods can’t be recreated after the fact, October inflation numbers are simply lost. That leaves the Fed with a major blind spot heading into its December 10 meeting. The next CPI release, covering November, won’t arrive until December 18—well after policymakers make their decision.
 
This puts the Fed in an unusual and more uncertain position. At a time when officials are divided over the pace of rate cuts and trying to understand whether inflation is cooling or holding firm, missing data adds even more complexity. The Commerce Department also delayed its release of the PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—with no new date announced. With both CPI and PCE missing, the central bank will have to rely on older data, private-sector surveys, and market indicators to determine whether another rate cut is justified.
 
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been open about the challenge, describing the situation as “driving in the fog.” He suggested the Fed may need to move cautiously as it waits for clearer information. But other officials are signaling different views. New York Fed President John Williams hinted that there may be room for another policy adjustment soon, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank still has enough information to make an informed call, even without the missing reports.
 
The stakes are high. The Fed just delivered a quarter-point rate cut in October, but minutes from that meeting show growing uncertainty about the state of inflation and the labor market. Without the October CPI and without updated PCE data, policymakers must make their December decision based largely on September readings and broader economic signals. As the Fed debates whether to slow, pause, or continue cutting rates, the missing inflation data adds a new layer of uncertainty at a pivotal moment for the economy.
 
🔍 If you’re looking to get the best possible mortgage in the U.S. for Foreign Nationals and Americans, and want to run an auction between more than 3,000+ lenders, click here👇
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Continue reading on our site: 
https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/2025/11/fed-faces-key-data-gap-as-october-inflation-report-is-canceled/
#FederalReserve #InflationWatch #CPIReport #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate